The case for EU moving to 30%

The document examines the strategic importance of low-carbon technology for the EU, highlighting the risk of 'high carbon lock-in' if infrastructure decisions today commit economies to high-emissions pathways for 20-30 years. It argues that the current 20% emissions target is insufficient to drive the necessary scale and speed of innovation. The authors propose a 30% target by 2020 to provide certainty for investors and spur the deployment of technologies like electric vehicles and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). The report also emphasizes the need for a system-wide risk management approach and increased international cooperation, particularly with China, the US, and Japan, to create integrated global markets and avoid protectionism.

• Infrastructure and energy investment decisions made currently will determine emissions pathways for the next 20-30 years, creating a risk of 'high carbon lock-in' that could lead to a mean warming of 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels by 2060.
• The EU's current 20% emissions reduction target for 2020 provides minimal incentive for innovation beyond business-as-usual; increasing this target to 30% would catalyze policy decisions aligned with scientific limits and provide greater certainty for low-carbon investors.
• While Europe led clean energy investment in 2009, accounting for 44% of the global total ($43.7 billion), other nations are catching up; China overtook the US in clean energy finance and investment in 2009.
• Major economies are utilizing stimulus packages for low-carbon investment, but EU Member States had the lowest proportion of green investments among major economies, totaling $24.3 billion.
• Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to drive the required speed of innovation, as prices exceeding €100 per tonne of CO2 are unrealistic in the near future, and the EU ETS typically encourages the cheapest existing options rather than breakthrough technologies.
• The report identifies several market failures hindering innovation, including the 'valleys of death'—the gap between public and private funding during early product development and the gap during commercialization for first-of-a-kind plants.
• Electric vehicles (EVs) are critical for transport decarbonization, with IEA Blue Map scenarios estimating they could account for 17% of transport-related emissions reductions by 2050, though they require a nearly total decarbonization of the electricity supply to be effective.
• Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is expected to contribute 20% of global emission reductions by 2050, but the lack of full-scale operational plants risks delaying deployment beyond 2030.
• The report recommends a three-tier 'ABC' risk management framework: mitigating to stay below 2°C, budgeting for resilience to 3-4°C, and contingency planning for 5-7°C.
• International cooperation is essential to create global markets and avoid protectionism; the report suggests joint RD&D, knowledge sharing, and operationalizing the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism.

APA

Zorlu, P., Tomlinson, S., & Kumar, S. (2011). The case for EU moving to 30%. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-e3g-eu-beyond20-international-technology-final-030311.pdf

Chicago

Zorlu, Pelin, Shane Tomlinson, and Sanjeev Kumar. The case for EU moving to 30%. Climate Strategies, 2011. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-e3g-eu-beyond20-international-technology-final-030311.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zorlu |first1=Pelin |last2=Tomlinson |first2=Shane |last3=Kumar |first3=Sanjeev |title=The case for EU moving to 30% |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=March 2011 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-e3g-eu-beyond20-international-technology-final-030311.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zorlu2011case, author = {Zorlu, Pelin and Tomlinson, Shane and Kumar, Sanjeev}, title = {{The case for EU moving to 30\%}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2011}, month = mar, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-e3g-eu-beyond20-international-technology-final-030311.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }