A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY FOR EVERYONE

The report assesses how the EU can achieve a 30% greenhouse gas reduction by 2020, analyzing the interplay between the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), renewable energy targets, and energy efficiency goals. It finds that full implementation of energy efficiency and renewable targets, combined with post-recession baselines, could lead to a domestic reduction of approximately 30%. The analysis also explores the impact of offsets and LULUCF accounting, noting that these mechanisms could reduce the required domestic effort to between 17% and 22% while still nominally meeting a 30% target. The report concludes that a 25% to 30% domestic reduction is consistent with long-term goals of 80% to 95% reduction by 2050.

• Full implementation of the EU's energy efficiency and renewable energy targets, considering the impact of the 2008/2009 recession, would result in a domestic greenhouse gas emission reduction of approximately 30% by 2020.
• If the energy efficiency and renewable targets are met, the EU ETS cap would need to be significantly more stringent than the current 21% below 2005 level to remain consistent, potentially requiring a reduction of 38% below 2005 emissions.
• The use of international offsets and LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry) accounting can substantially lower the required domestic mitigation effort. Combined, these could allow the EU to nominally meet a 30% target while only achieving domestic reductions of 17% to 22% below 1990 levels.
• Offsets alone could contribute approximately 3% of 1990 emissions for a 20% target and around 6% for a 30% target.
• LULUCF accounting is estimated to most likely contribute a 2% reduction relative to 1990 emissions, although the actual value depends on the accounting rules chosen.
• A domestic emission reduction of 25% to 30% by 2020 is considered consistent with the long-term objective of achieving an 80% to 95% reduction by 2050.
• Current EU policy efforts regarding energy efficiency are insufficient to meet the established target, despite significant cost-effective mitigation potential.
• Under a 'least cost' scenario for a 30% domestic reduction, only 38% of reductions would need to be achieved directly within the ETS sector, with 26% coming from electricity demand reduction and 36% from the renewable energy target.

APA

Höhne, N., Hagemann, M., Moltmann, S., & Escalante, D. (2011). A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY FOR EVERYONE. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-consistency-eu-30-ecofys.pdf

Chicago

Höhne, Niklas, Markus Hagemann, Sara Moltmann, and Donovan Escalante. A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY FOR EVERYONE. Climate Strategies, 2011. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-consistency-eu-30-ecofys.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Höhne |first1=Niklas |last2=Hagemann |first2=Markus |last3=Moltmann |first3=Sara |last4=Escalante |first4=Donovan |title=A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY FOR EVERYONE |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2011 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-consistency-eu-30-ecofys.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hhne2011sustainable, author = {Höhne, Niklas and Hagemann, Markus and Moltmann, Sara and Escalante, Donovan}, title = {{A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY FOR EVERYONE}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2011}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-consistency-eu-30-ecofys.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }