CMIP6 Methodology

The authors used the delta method to reduce model biases by calculating monthly anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 reference period, then added observed averages from the Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) to derive absolute temperature values. They focused on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) to represent low and high carbon emission scenarios, respectively, applying a rolling 10-year average to smooth the time series for 247 specific locations.

• The analysis utilized 34 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) that provided monthly data for both historical and future periods and ran both SSP 1 and SSP 3 scenarios.
• To address the low spatial resolution of CMIP6 models, where data points occur roughly every degree of latitude and longitude, the authors used the python xarray package to interpolate data for 247 specific stations.
• The 'delta method' was employed to correct for models that run slightly warm or cool by calculating the deviation of each month from a model's own average during a 1991-2020 reference period, then adding these anomalies to observed average temperatures from the Applied Climate Information System (ACIS).

APA

Giguere, J., & Pershing, A. (2021). CMIP6 Methodology. Climate Central. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/4bvfQ0Ut8bdtZ9qZLXhsQm/5d408a040087efeeffc62c58549aaddd/CMIP6_Methodology.pdf

Chicago

Giguere, Joseph, and Andrew Pershing. CMIP6 Methodology. Climate Central, 2021. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/4bvfQ0Ut8bdtZ9qZLXhsQm/5d408a040087efeeffc62c58549aaddd/CMIP6_Methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Giguere |first1=Joseph |last2=Pershing |first2=Andrew |title=CMIP6 Methodology |publisher=Climate Central |date=25 October 2021 |url=https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/4bvfQ0Ut8bdtZ9qZLXhsQm/5d408a040087efeeffc62c58549aaddd/CMIP6_Methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{giguere2021cmip6, author = {Giguere, Joseph and Pershing, Andrew}, title = {{CMIP6 Methodology}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/4bvfQ0Ut8bdtZ9qZLXhsQm/5d408a040087efeeffc62c58549aaddd/CMIP6_Methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }