Vulnerability and Resilience of U.S. Coastal Wetlands to Sea Level Rise

The report analyzes the potential for U.S. coastal wetlands to either expand or almost entirely disappear by 2100 based on sea level rise rates, vertical accretion, and the conservation of land for horizontal migration. It identifies Louisiana, North Carolina, and Texas as high-risk areas and emphasizes that conserving undeveloped dryland (refugia) is a decisive factor in preventing widespread wetland loss.

• U.S. coastal wetlands could either increase in area by 25% or decline by 97% by 2100, depending on the pace of sea level rise, vertical growth rates, and the amount of land conserved for migration.
• Conserving all available land for wetlands to migrate into (refugia) significantly reduces potential loss; under moderate growth and modest emission cuts, full conservation would limit loss to a 17% reduction, compared to a 63% reduction if all such land is developed.
• Louisiana is the state most at risk of losing wetlands, as it contains one-third of the coastal wetlands in the contiguous U.S., followed by North Carolina and Texas.
• Wetlands survive sea level rise through two mechanisms: horizontal migration into undeveloped dryland (refugia) or vertical accretion via the accumulation of sediment and organic matter.
• In scenarios where development blocks migration, wetlands must grow vertically at a rate equal to or faster than sea level rise to avoid 'drowning' and converting to open water.
• Coastal wetlands in the U.S. provide significant economic value, estimated at $746 billion in ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, water filtration, and flood protection.

APA

Climate Central (2022). Vulnerability and Resilience of U.S. Coastal Wetlands to Sea Level Rise. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3b9004W1SmFtjMjzfLF0cC/a74a6cbcd96ba3dd307d0d6b99533101/Climate_Central_Report_-_Vulnerability_and_Resilience_of_US_Coastal_Wetlands.pdf

Chicago

Climate Central. Vulnerability and Resilience of U.S. Coastal Wetlands to Sea Level Rise. 2022. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3b9004W1SmFtjMjzfLF0cC/a74a6cbcd96ba3dd307d0d6b99533101/Climate_Central_Report_-_Vulnerability_and_Resilience_of_US_Coastal_Wetlands.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=Vulnerability and Resilience of U.S. Coastal Wetlands to Sea Level Rise |date=June 2022 |url=https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3b9004W1SmFtjMjzfLF0cC/a74a6cbcd96ba3dd307d0d6b99533101/Climate_Central_Report_-_Vulnerability_and_Resilience_of_US_Coastal_Wetlands.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral2022vulnerability, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{Vulnerability and Resilience of U.S. Coastal Wetlands to Sea Level Rise}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3b9004W1SmFtjMjzfLF0cC/a74a6cbcd96ba3dd307d0d6b99533101/Climate_Central_Report_-_Vulnerability_and_Resilience_of_US_Coastal_Wetlands.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }