The Cool Way to Heat Homes

The report examines the opportunity to phase out residential central air conditioners in Canada in favor of heat pumps. It argues that because the two technologies are mechanically similar, a market transformation strategy could bypass significant adoption barriers. The authors project that installing heat pumps instead of central air conditioners from 2025 to 2035 would result in C$12.6 billion in net benefits, including C$10.4 billion in energy bill savings and a reduction of 19.6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. The document identifies barriers such as low consumer familiarity, high upfront costs, and emergency replacement cycles, and proposes implementation routes including national equipment mandates, building code updates, and upstream incentives for distributors.

• Replacing all new residential central air conditioners with heat pumps from 2025 to 2035 is projected to generate C$12.6 billion in net present value of energy bill and emissions benefits.
• The building sector is the third-largest source of emissions in Canada, accounting for 18% of the country's greenhouse gases, with space heating and cooling making up over 67% of building energy use.
• Heat pumps are significantly more efficient than other heating methods; a single-stage model produces 220% more heat energy than it consumes in electricity, while variable-speed cold-climate units can reach 400% efficiency or more.
• Five primary barriers hinder heat pump adoption in Canada: low familiarity among consumers and contractors, the infrequent nature of HVAC purchasing, short decision windows during emergency replacements, limited local stock availability, and higher upfront installation costs.
• The cost difference for manufacturers between a basic heat pump and a central air conditioner is only a few hundred dollars, but this is magnified in the supply chain, leading to a C$1,000C$2,000 difference for consumers for regular models and C$5,000 or more for cold-climate models.
• A market transformation strategy would benefit renters and low-income populations who are more vulnerable to energy poverty and extreme heat, as it removes the need for individual consumer choice or landlord incentive.
• The City of Vancouver serves as a successful test case, having mandated since 2023 that new air conditioning systems in detached 12 dwelling homes must be electric heat pumps.
• Proposed implementation routes include a national mandate via the Energy Efficiency Act, the development of a federal 'retrofit code', and upstream incentives for distributors ranging from C$550 to C$650 per unit.

APA

Gard-Murray, A., Haley, B., Miller, S., & Poirier, M. (2023). The Cool Way to Heat Homes. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/The-Cool-Way-To-Heat-Homes.pdf

Chicago

Gard-Murray, Alexander, Brendan Haley, Sarah Miller, and Mathieu Poirier. The Cool Way to Heat Homes. Canadian Climate Institute, 2023. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/The-Cool-Way-To-Heat-Homes.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gard-Murray |first1=Alexander |last2=Haley |first2=Brendan |last3=Miller |first3=Sarah |last4=Poirier |first4=Mathieu |title=The Cool Way to Heat Homes |publisher=Canadian Climate Institute |date=2023 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/The-Cool-Way-To-Heat-Homes.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gardmurray2023cool, author = {Gard-Murray, Alexander and Haley, Brendan and Miller, Sarah and Poirier, Mathieu}, title = {{The Cool Way to Heat Homes}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2023}, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/The-Cool-Way-To-Heat-Homes.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }