Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan Policy Assumptions

The report outlines the assumptions for 25 federal policies categorized as legislated/developed, developing, or announced. Key measures include a federal fuel charge and Output-Based Pricing System reaching $170/tCO2e by 2030, a proposed emissions cap on the oil and gas sector, and a Clean Electricity Standard aiming for net-zero by 2035. The document specifies simulation scenarios for these policies, including varying stringency levels for methane reductions, ZEV mandates, and building efficiency standards, alongside detailed funding allocations for infrastructure, hydrogen projects, and industrial decarbonization.

• The federal fuel charge and the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) are both projected to increase annually by $15/tCO2e until they reach a price of $170/tCO2e in 2030.
• The federal government intends to cap greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas extraction sector, with a more stringent simulation scenario capping emissions at 140 Mt in 2025 and 110 Mt in 2030.
• A Clean Electricity Standard (CES) is planned to achieve net-zero emissions from electricity generation by 2035, with simulation scenarios exploring different interim caps for 2025 and 2030.
• The government has committed to regulations reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by at least 75% below 2012 levels by 2030.
• Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales mandates are planned for both light-duty and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, with light-duty targets of 20% by 2026, 60% by 2030, and 100% by 2035.
• Significant funding is allocated for industrial and infrastructure decarbonization, including $8 billion over seven years for the Net Zero Accelerator and $35 billion total for the Canada Infrastructure Bank with priorities in green infrastructure, public transit, and clean power.
• Residential and community building efficiency is supported through various funds, including $2.6 billion for residential energy efficiency improvements and $1.5 billion for community building upgrades.
• Specific industrial projects are integrated into the simulations, including two low-carbon hydrogen projects in Alberta and steel plant upgrades in Ontario by ArcelorMittal and Algoma expected to reduce GHG emissions by approximately 6 Megatonnes by 2030.

APA

Förg, F., Peters, J., & Sawyer, D. (2022). Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan Policy Assumptions. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SimulatingCanadas2030ERP_March2022.pdf

Chicago

Förg, Franziska, Jotham Peters, and Dave Sawyer. Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan Policy Assumptions. Canadian Climate Institute, 2022. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SimulatingCanadas2030ERP_March2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Förg |first1=Franziska |last2=Peters |first2=Jotham |last3=Sawyer |first3=Dave |title=Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan Policy Assumptions |publisher=Canadian Climate Institute |date=31 March 2022 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SimulatingCanadas2030ERP_March2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{frg2022simulating, author = {Förg, Franziska and Peters, Jotham and Sawyer, Dave}, title = {{Simulating Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan Policy Assumptions}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SimulatingCanadas2030ERP_March2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }