Costing Climate Change Impacts on Canada’s Infrastructure: Results for “Deep Dive” Statistical and Process-based Models Final Report

The report finds that inland flooding represents the highest annual cost of climate change for Canadian infrastructure, with mid-range estimates between $5 billion and $8 billion per year. Proactive adaptation can significantly reduce costs for roads, rail, and the electrical grid, though it is less effective for permafrost thaw and inland flooding. The analysis highlights that while total costs are often concentrated in high-population areas like Ontario, specific geographic risks such as permafrost thaw disproportionately affect the three territories.

• Inland flooding is the most expensive infrastructure category under a reactive strategy, with mid-range annual costs estimated between $5 billion and $8 billion, exceeding the next highest category by 15 to 135 percent.
• Proactive adaptation strategies offer substantial cost reductions for several sectors: 76% to 98% for roads, rail, and delay costs; 45% to 77% for coastal properties; and 38% to 47% for the electrical grid.
• Proactive adaptation is less effective for permafrost thaw because such measures can only delay rather than prevent the loss of bearing capacity and subsidence once warming thresholds are reached.
• Road-related costs are driven primarily by temperature increases, which account for 78% to 95% of costs under a status quo scenario due to surface degradation and increased repair needs.
• For the rail sector, indirect delay costs are significantly more impactful than direct repair and investment costs, exceeding them by more than an order of magnitude.
• Permafrost thaw and winter road impacts disproportionately affect Canada's three territories, with combined annual costs of approximately $170 million despite a population roughly 100 times smaller than Ontario's.
• Coastal property damages are dominated by storm surge, which accounts for over 90% of total costs across all scenarios and years.
• Hydropower generation is projected to increase nationally, with average increases of roughly 10% for the 2050s and 2080s under RCP 4.5, and 18% under RCP 8.5 in the 2080s.
• Electrical grid costs are primarily driven by reductions in substation transformer lifespan and wood pole decay, which together contribute 56% to 75% of total costs.
• Winter road usability is projected to decline, with costs heavily concentrated in Ontario and Manitoba; however, the Northwest Territories are expected to maintain better road integrity due to lower absolute temperatures.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (2020). Costing Climate Change Impacts on Canada’s Infrastructure: Results for “Deep Dive” Statistical and Process-based Models Final Report. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Deep-Dive-Report.pdf

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. Costing Climate Change Impacts on Canada’s Infrastructure: Results for “Deep Dive” Statistical and Process-based Models Final Report. 2020. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Deep-Dive-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=Costing Climate Change Impacts on Canada’s Infrastructure: Results for “Deep Dive” Statistical and Process-based Models Final Report |date=31 December 2020 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Deep-Dive-Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitute2020costing, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{Costing Climate Change Impacts on Canada’s Infrastructure: Results for “Deep Dive” Statistical and Process-based Models Final Report}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Deep-Dive-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }