Technical Background – Part I

The document details a technical framework for climate impact assessments in British Columbia, focusing on the selection of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and the quantification of heat-related health and labour risks. It establishes a process for downscaling climate data to 111 population centres and applies exposure-response functions to estimate unexpected deaths, hospitalisations, and lost labour hours. The text also outlines several proactive adaptation scenarios—including increased air conditioning adoption, window shading, urban planning, and shifted work hours—and the economic metrics used to conduct cost-benefit analyses for these interventions.

• The analysis identified significant variation among 19 CMIP6 GCMs regarding projected extreme heat and growing season length in British Columbia. In Prince George, the difference in growing season length between the warmest and coldest models is projected to reach 76 days by the end of the century.
• Standard 10-kilometre gridded climate data often fail to capture local variations in British Columbia's topography. Climate models generally underestimated temperatures by an annual average of 1.05°C, with the largest underestimates occurring in mountain communities such as Lillooet, Nelson, and Penticton.
• The study identifies 'high-risk' industries for labour productivity losses, including Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting; Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction; Utilities; Construction; Manufacturing; and Transportation and Warehousing.
• Labour supply in high-risk industries is significantly reduced during extreme heat; for example, when maximum temperatures exceed 37.8°C, workers in these sectors reduce their time allocated to labour by nearly one hour compared to temperatures in the 23.9-26.7°C range, representing a 14% daily reduction.
• The document proposes several adaptation strategies to mitigate heat impacts, including increasing the adoption rate of residential air conditioning, installing external window screens, and implementing urban planning measures like increasing tree canopy and using cool roofs and pavements.

APA

Clark, D. G. (n.d.). Technical Background – Part I. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/climate-impact-assessment-bc-technical-background.pdf

Chicago

Clark, Dylan G. Technical Background – Part I. Canadian Climate Institute, n.d. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/climate-impact-assessment-bc-technical-background.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Clark |first1=Dylan G. |title=Technical Background – Part I |publisher=Canadian Climate Institute |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/climate-impact-assessment-bc-technical-background.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{clarkndtechnical, author = {Clark, Dylan G.}, title = {{Technical Background – Part I}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/climate-impact-assessment-bc-technical-background.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }