Heat pumps pay off: Unlocking lower-cost heating and cooling in Canada

The document details the technical framework of the HEAT™ model used to assess the economics of heat pump adoption in Canada. It specifies the building archetypes, equipment configurations, and future-shifted climate data for Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, Montréal, and Halifax. The report outlines the financial inputs, including energy price forecasts, carbon pricing based on the federal backstop, and a comprehensive list of federal, provincial, and municipal incentives available at the time of analysis.

• The study utilizes the HEAT™ model, which employs 8,760 hourly climate data and heat pump performance curves to provide a more precise assessment of performance than standard HSPF or COP metrics.
• The analysis is based on 'Future-shifted' climate files representing the expected climate in the year 2035, interpolated from 2020 and 2050 weather files from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium.
• The research covers four residential building archetypes: single-detached houses, rowhouses, multi-unit residence buildings (MURB) with in-unit HVAC, and MURB with central HVAC, across three vintages (1940, 1980, and 2023).
• Four equipment configurations were analyzed: a business-as-usual gas-fired system with AC, a hybrid system with a heat pump and gas backup, and two all-electric configurations (one with a standard heat pump and one with a cold-climate heat pump).
• Electrical panel upgrades are required for all all-electric configurations in all jurisdictions, and for hybrid configurations in jurisdictions with low air conditioning penetration (Vancouver, Edmonton, and Halifax).
• The seasonal efficiency (COP) of cold-climate heat pumps varies significantly by city, ranging from 2.3 in Edmonton to 3.3 in Vancouver.
• The federal Greener Homes Grant provides up to $5,000 for cold-climate ducted air-source heat pumps, but it is not applicable to multi-unit residence buildings or new construction.
• Carbon pricing assumptions follow the federal backstop, increasing from $65 per tonne in 2023 to $170 per tonne by 2031 and remaining at that level through 2053.

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (2024). Heat pumps pay off: Unlocking lower-cost heating and cooling in Canada. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2024-02-14_Dunsky-CCI-Heat-Pumps-Pay-Off-Revised-Technical-Report_FINAL-5-cities.pdf

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. Heat pumps pay off: Unlocking lower-cost heating and cooling in Canada. 2024. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2024-02-14_Dunsky-CCI-Heat-Pumps-Pay-Off-Revised-Technical-Report_FINAL-5-cities.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=Heat pumps pay off: Unlocking lower-cost heating and cooling in Canada |date=February 2024 |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2024-02-14_Dunsky-CCI-Heat-Pumps-Pay-Off-Revised-Technical-Report_FINAL-5-cities.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitute2024heat, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{Heat pumps pay off: Unlocking lower-cost heating and cooling in Canada}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, year = {2024}, month = feb, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2024-02-14_Dunsky-CCI-Heat-Pumps-Pay-Off-Revised-Technical-Report_FINAL-5-cities.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }