BP's corporate reporting regarding oil demand forecast to 2035: potential legal risks

ClientEarth asserts that BP's 'base case' oil demand forecast to 2035 is at odds with independent analysis and automotive industry trends, potentially misleading investors and exposing BP to compensation claims under UK law.

• ClientEarth contends that BP's Annual Report and Form 20-F 2016, supported by the BP Energy Outlook: 2017 edition, fails to adequately address downside risks that would reduce oil demand growth, potentially giving investors a "misleading impression of the future viability of the business."
• BP's claim that its base case is "the most likely path for energy to 2035" is contradicted by several industry peers and independent analyses. Specifically, Shell's CFO stated oil demand could peak in 5 to 15 years, OPEC predicted a peak within 15 years, and Wood Mackenzie suggested a peak well before 2035.
• BP's forecast for electric vehicle (EV) growth is significantly lower than automotive sector analysis and industry ambitions. BP predicts EVs will comprise 6% of the global car fleet in 2035 (100 million vehicles), whereas BNEF predicted 25% of the global car fleet would be EV, and research by Carbon Tracker Initiative and Imperial College projects approximately 35% by 2035.
• BP's base case forecast appears to ignore the impact of international and national regulations. The IEA's 2DS scenario targets 140 million EVs in the vehicle stock by 2030, which is 5 years earlier and 40 million vehicles more than BP's 2035 forecast. Additionally, fuel economy standards in the US, EU, and China, and potential internal combustion engine bans in Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Switzerland, and the Netherlands, are cited as drivers for faster EV growth.
• Under Section 90A and Schedule 10A of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, BP could be liable for compensation if investors suffer loss due to reliance on published information that was "untrue or misleading" or if a material fact was dishonestly concealed by a person with managerial responsibilities.

APA

ClientEarth (2017). BP's corporate reporting regarding oil demand forecast to 2035: potential legal risks. https://www.clientearth.org/media/cmvdjsdc/bp-corporate-reporting-regarding-oil-demand-forecast-to-2035-ce-en.pdf

Chicago

ClientEarth. BP's corporate reporting regarding oil demand forecast to 2035: potential legal risks. 2017. https://www.clientearth.org/media/cmvdjsdc/bp-corporate-reporting-regarding-oil-demand-forecast-to-2035-ce-en.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |author=ClientEarth |title=BP's corporate reporting regarding oil demand forecast to 2035: potential legal risks |date=16 May 2017 |url=https://www.clientearth.org/media/cmvdjsdc/bp-corporate-reporting-regarding-oil-demand-forecast-to-2035-ce-en.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{clientearth2017bps, author = {{ClientEarth}}, title = {{BP's corporate reporting regarding oil demand forecast to 2035: potential legal risks}}, publisher = {ClientEarth}, year = {2017}, month = may, url = {https://www.clientearth.org/media/cmvdjsdc/bp-corporate-reporting-regarding-oil-demand-forecast-to-2035-ce-en.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }