Temperature Neutrality and No Additional Warming

The document argues that the GWP* metric allows major methane polluters to claim climate neutrality or "no additional warming" by merely stabilising emissions rather than eliminating them. It details how this approach is being embedded into the policies of New Zealand and Ireland, promoted by industry lobbies in Germany and the UK, and pushed by researchers and trade bodies in Brazil ahead of COP30. The author contends that government-linked research bodies are providing a "veneer of scientific legitimacy" to these industry-driven narratives to weaken national and international climate ambitions.

• GWP* is a methane measurement method that focuses on changes in methane levels over time rather than total warming effect, which can allow large polluters to claim progress through small efficiency gains while maintaining high overall emissions.
• New narratives such as "no additional warming" and "temperature neutrality" are being used to hide the application of GWP*, enabling polluters to claim they are no longer contributing to warming by simply stabilising emissions at a high baseline.
• Ireland is moving toward embedding GWP*-based targets into law and has explicitly planned to promote the metric at the EU and UNFCCC levels, using the term "temperature neutrality" in its carbon budget.

APA

Changing Markets Foundation (2025). Temperature Neutrality and No Additional Warming. https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-New-Faces-of-GWP_Final-Briefing.pdf

Chicago

Changing Markets Foundation. Temperature Neutrality and No Additional Warming. 2025. https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-New-Faces-of-GWP_Final-Briefing.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Changing Markets Foundation |title=Temperature Neutrality and No Additional Warming |date=2025 |url=https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-New-Faces-of-GWP_Final-Briefing.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{changingmarketsfoundation2025temperature, author = {{Changing Markets Foundation}}, title = {{Temperature Neutrality and No Additional Warming}}, institution = {Changing Markets Foundation}, year = {2025}, url = {https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-New-Faces-of-GWP_Final-Briefing.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }