Seeing Stars

The report examines the GWP* metric, which focuses on changes in methane emissions over time rather than absolute levels. It argues that this methodology allows high-polluting companies and countries to present minor reductions as negative emissions, thereby escaping accountability and undermining the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Through case studies of Tyson, Fonterra, and New Zealand, the document demonstrates how GWP* can make significant emitters appear climate neutral. It further details lobbying efforts by the animal agriculture industry in the US, UK, Ireland, and New Zealand to adopt this metric.

• The GWP* metric allows high-polluting entities to use current methane levels as a baseline, meaning minor reductions can be reported as negative emissions or cooling, even while absolute emissions remain high.
• Calculations for Tyson show that a 30% emissions reduction by 2030 would result in roughly 58.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent under GWP100, but could be claimed as negative emissions of roughly minus 82.6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent using GWP*.
• For Fonterra, a 30% reduction between 2020 and 2030 would leave the company responsible for 21.6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent under GWP100, but GWP* would allow it to claim it is removing around 19 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent from the atmosphere.
• In New Zealand, where agriculture accounts for about 44% of emissions, a 10% reduction in methane could lead to the country reporting negative methane emissions by 2038 under GWP*.
• The report identifies a coordinated effort by the animal agriculture lobby to promote GWP* in the United States, United Kingdom, Ireland, and New Zealand to avoid robust climate policies.
• Internal documents from Ireland's Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) indicate a desire to adopt GWP* because of concerns that the country may fail to meet its 51% GHG reduction target by 2030 due to biogenic methane.
• The GWP* metric creates global inequity by potentially rewarding historically high emitters for slight decreases while penalising countries with historically low methane emissions for small increases.
• The report argues that methane emissions from farmed animals increased by 332% between 1890 and 2014, contradicting the industry narrative that ruminant methane is part of a natural closed-loop cycle.

APA

Malins, C., & Urbancic, N. (2023). Seeing Stars. Changing Markets Foundation. https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Seeing-stars-report.pdf

Chicago

Malins, Chris, and Nusa Urbancic. Seeing Stars. Changing Markets Foundation, 2023. https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Seeing-stars-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Malins |first1=Chris |last2=Urbancic |first2=Nusa |title=Seeing Stars |publisher=Changing Markets Foundation |date=November 2023 |url=https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Seeing-stars-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{malins2023seeing, author = {Malins, Chris and Urbancic, Nusa}, title = {{Seeing Stars}}, institution = {Changing Markets Foundation}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Seeing-stars-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }