Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity

The report finds that new coal capacity in the IRP 2019 is unnecessary for energy security, more expensive than renewable alternatives, and incompatible with the Paris Agreement. Modelling shows that forcing 1.5 GW of new coal into the system increases total discounted power system costs by R23 billion in a reference scenario and up to R109 billion in a climate policy scenario. Furthermore, the study argues that a high-renewable pathway creates more jobs and supports higher GDP growth than a coal-dominated future.

• A least-cost electricity build plan for South Africa would not include any new investments in coal power.
• In a reference scenario reflecting current economic reality, forcing 1.5 GW of new coal into the power system increases total discounted costs by R23 billion and raises the average unit cost of electricity by 0.8 c/kWh (approximately 0.5%).

APA

Merven, B., Burton, J., & Lehmann-Grube, P. (2021). Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa_021121.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Merven, Bruno, Jesse Burton, and Patrick Lehmann-Grube. Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2021. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa_021121.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Merven |first1=Bruno |last2=Burton |first2=Jesse |last3=Lehmann-Grube |first3=Patrick |title=Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=1 November 2021 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa_021121.pdf?x21779 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{merven2021assessment, author = {Merven, Bruno and Burton, Jesse and Lehmann-Grube, Patrick}, title = {{Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa_021121.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }