Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity

The study finds that new coal generation is unnecessary for energy security, more expensive than renewable alternatives, and incompatible with the Paris Agreement. Modelling shows that forcing 1.5 GW of new coal into the power system increases total discounted costs by R23 billion in a reference scenario and R109 billion in a climate policy scenario, while reducing GDP and employment.

• A least-cost electricity build plan for South Africa would not include any new investments in coal power.
• In a reference scenario reflecting current economic reality, forcing 1.5 GW of new coal into the build plan increases total discounted electricity system costs by at least R23 billion and raises the average unit cost of electricity by 0.5% (0.8 c/kWh).
• The inclusion of new coal capacity in the reference scenario increases cumulative national greenhouse gas emissions by 289 Mt CO2-eq by 2050 compared to an optimal plan without new coal.
• Forcing new coal into a climate policy scenario—where emissions are capped to align with the Paris Agreement—increases total discounted power sector costs by R109 billion, raising unit costs by 3.5% (8.0 c/kWh).
• New coal capacity negatively impacts the economy, reducing GDP growth by 0.11% in 2030 and 0.08% in 2040, and resulting in approximately 25,000 job losses in 2030 across the economy.
• Renewable energy creates more jobs per unit of electricity produced than coal, and a high-renewable system generates the highest overall employment across the economy.
• The concept of 'baseload' power is outdated; modern power systems can maintain reliability using a complementary mix of variable renewable energy and flexible dispatchable generators.
• New coal plants are incompatible with the Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to 1.5°C or well below 2°C, as they would either become stranded assets or force the earlier retirement of existing coal plants to stay within carbon budgets.

APA

Merven, B., Burton, J., & Lehmann-Grube, P. (2021). Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Annexure-A_ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Merven, Bruno, Jesse Burton, and Patrick Lehmann-Grube. Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2021. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Annexure-A_ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Merven |first1=Bruno |last2=Burton |first2=Jesse |last3=Lehmann-Grube |first3=Patrick |title=Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=27 August 2021 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Annexure-A_ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa.pdf?x21779 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{merven2021assessment, author = {Merven, Bruno and Burton, Jesse and Lehmann-Grube, Patrick}, title = {{Assessment of new coal generation capacity targets in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2021}, month = aug, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Annexure-A_ESRG_New-coal-plants-South-Africa.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }