Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale

This report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) evaluates the air quality, health, and economic impacts of the proposed Lephalale Coal Mine (LCM) and its associated independent power plant (IPP) in South Africa. The analysis identifies significant underestimates in a previous environmental impact assessment (EIA) and projects substantial premature deaths, morbidity, and economic losses over the project's 35-year lifecycle, particularly if coal is burnt at existing power plants lacking emission controls.

• The 2017 environmental impact assessment (EIA) by Gondwana Environmental Solutions International (GESI) underestimated the project's impacts by neglecting mercury, existing pollution sources, secondary PM2.5 formation, and long-range impacts, while using an incorrect PM2.5 annual-mean guideline value of 40 μg/m3 instead of 20 μg/m3.
• Coal mining activities alone at the LCM project are projected to cause 93 premature deaths and various morbidity outcomes, including 75 preterm and 76 underweight births, resulting in an economic cost of USD 75 million over 35 years.
• The health and economic burdens increase drastically depending on where the coal is burnt: on-site combustion at the LCM IPP is estimated to cause 3,000 premature deaths (costing USD 2.5 billion), while burning the coal at the Medupi or Matimba power plants could lead to approximately 40,000 premature deaths (costing USD 30 billion) due to a lack of emission control technologies.
• Mercury emissions from the LCM project (mine and IPP) are projected to cause a loss of 3,700 IQ points and approximately 500 lives, with an associated economic cost of roughly USD 600 million.
• The project will lead to widespread violations of South African air quality standards. When combined with existing sources, daily average PM2.5 concentrations are exceeded for over 20 million residents, daily average PM10 for over 500,000 inhabitants, and hourly average SO2 for over 2 million residents.
• Local residents of Lephalale already face increased health risks from existing sources (Medupi, Matimba, and Grootgeluk), including a 3.1% increase in preterm birth risk and a 2.5% increase in premature mortality. The LCM project would further increase these risks, notably raising the risk of chronic bronchitis in adults by 17.4% and children by 11.9%.
• The LCM project is expected to emit approximately 840 kg of mercury annually, with 30% depositing into regional freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. This includes sensitive areas such as the Waterberg Biosphere Reserve, Marakele National Park, Magaliesberg Biosphere Reserve, and the Spruytskloof and Nungu Private Nature Reserves.
• Combined mercury deposition rates from the LCM project and existing sources are projected to reach 1,000 mg/ha/year in the most affected locations, which is 2-3 times higher than rates measured in Johannesburg and Cape Town.

APA

Myllyvirta, L., & Kelly, J. (n.d.). Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Myllyvirta, Lauri, and Jamie Kelly. Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale. Centre for Environmental Rights, n.d. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Myllyvirta |first1=Lauri |last2=Kelly |first2=Jamie |title=Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{myllyvirtandair, author = {Myllyvirta, Lauri and Kelly, Jamie}, title = {{Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }