Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale

The report finds that the proposed Lephalale Coal Mine (LCM) and its power plant will cause significant air quality violations and severe health and economic burdens. It argues that a previous environmental impact assessment (EIA) by GESI (2017) underestimated these impacts by neglecting mercury, existing pollution sources, and secondary PM2.5 formation. The analysis indicates that while mining alone causes 93 premature deaths, burning the coal on-site increases this to 3,120 deaths, and burning it at existing plants like Medupi or Matimba could lead to up to 41,984 premature deaths. Mercury emissions are projected to cause a loss of 3,700 IQ points and 554 lives, with significant deposition in protected ecosystems like the Waterberg Biosphere Reserve.

• The 2017 environmental impact assessment (EIA) by GESI underestimated the project's impacts due to nine major methodological flaws, including the omission of mercury, failure to account for existing pollution sources, and the use of an incorrect PM2.5 annual-mean guideline value (40  instead of 20 ).
• Coal mining activities at the LCM project alone are estimated to cause 93 premature deaths and various morbidity outcomes, such as 75 preterm and 76 underweight births, resulting in an economic cost of USD 75 million over 35 years.
• The health and economic burdens increase drastically depending on where the coal is burnt: on-site combustion at the LCM leads to approximately 3,000 premature deaths and USD 2.5 billion in costs, while burning the coal at Medupi or Matimba power stations could result in approximately 40,000 premature deaths and USD 30 billion in costs.
• Mercury emissions from the LCM project (mine and IPP) are projected to cause 554 deaths and a loss of 3,700 IQ points, with an associated economic cost of approximately USD 662 million.
• The project will lead to widespread violations of South African air quality standards; daily average PM2.5 exceedances will affect over 20 million residents, daily PM10 exceedances will affect over 500,000 inhabitants, and hourly SO2 exceedances will affect over 2 million residents.
• Local residents in Lephalale already face increased health risks from existing sources (Medupi, Matimba, and Grootgeluk mine), including a 3.1% increase in preterm birth risk and a 2.5% increase in premature mortality; the LCM project will further increase these risks, notably raising the risk of chronic bronchitis in adults by 17.4% and children by 11.9%.
• The LCM project is expected to emit about 840 kg of mercury annually, with 30% depositing into regional ecosystems. This includes sensitive areas such as the Waterberg Biosphere Reserve, Marakele National Park, Magaliesberg Biosphere Reserve, and Spruytskloof and Nungu Private Nature Reserves, with peak deposition rates reaching 1,000 mg/ha/year.

APA

Myllyvirta, L., & Kelly, J. (n.d.). Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Myllyvirta, Lauri, and Jamie Kelly. Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale. Centre for Environmental Rights, n.d. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Myllyvirta |first1=Lauri |last2=Kelly |first2=Jamie |title=Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{myllyvirtandair, author = {Myllyvirta, Lauri and Kelly, Jamie}, title = {{Air Quality, Health, and Economic Impacts of a New Coal Mine and Power Plant in Lephalale}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Expert-Report-of-Centre-for-Research-on-Energy-and-Clean-Air.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }