Air quality and health impacts of ESKOM’s planned non-compliance with South African Minimum Emission Standards

This report projects that Eskom's planned non-compliance with South Africa's Minimum Emission Standards (MES) would lead to an estimated 16,000 avoidable premature deaths and significant excess emissions of SO2, NOx, particulate matter, and mercury. The health impacts are particularly acute in the Gauteng region, where 3,100 premature deaths could be avoided through full compliance. The analysis also highlights that mercury deposition would exceed health risk thresholds over 89,000km², affecting 3.4 million people.

• Eskom is seeking postponements and suspensions from the Minimum Emission Standards (MES) that would allow its existing coal-fired power plant fleet to operate without basic controls for mercury, NOx, and SO2.
• If Eskom's requests for non-compliance are fully granted, it is estimated that the utility will emit significantly more pollutants over the remaining life of its plants compared to a full compliance scenario: 19 million tonnes more SO2, 1 million tonnes more NOx, 190,000 tonnes of particulate matter, and 200,000 kilograms of mercury.
• Full compliance with the MES could avoid an estimated 16,000 premature deaths (with a 95% confidence interval of 13,000 to 18,000), which would represent a 40% reduction in the health impact of air pollution from Eskom's power stations.
• The Gauteng region is a particular public health concern due to the proximity of highly polluting plants. Full compliance with the MES could avoid an estimated 3,100 premature deaths in Gauteng, with the highest numbers occurring in Johannesburg (1,000), Tshwane (900), and Ekurhuleni (800).
• Mercury emissions from Eskom's plants are projected to cause deposition levels exceeding health risk thresholds (above 125mg/ha/yr) over an area of 89,000km², affecting 3.4 million people.
• The report notes that other emerging economies have successfully implemented rapid retrofits of coal fleets to meet national standards, citing China's increase of SO2 control capacity from 14.3% to 89.1% between 2005 and 2011, and India's target for full compliance by 2022.

APA

Myllyvirta, L. (2019). Air quality and health impacts of ESKOM’s planned non-compliance with South African Minimum Emission Standards. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Annexure-5.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Myllyvirta, Lauri. Air quality and health impacts of ESKOM’s planned non-compliance with South African Minimum Emission Standards. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2019. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Annexure-5.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Myllyvirta |first1=Lauri |title=Air quality and health impacts of ESKOM’s planned non-compliance with South African Minimum Emission Standards |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=19 March 2019 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Annexure-5.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{myllyvirta2019air, author = {Myllyvirta, Lauri}, title = {{Air quality and health impacts of ESKOM’s planned non-compliance with South African Minimum Emission Standards}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2019}, month = mar, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Annexure-5.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }