Report on Thabametsi Mine and Power Plant Modeling

Air dispersion modeling by Dr. Ranajit Sahu indicates that the proposed Thabametsi power plant and mine, combined with existing facilities like Matimba and Medupi, would likely cause air pollution levels (specifically SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) to exceed South Africa's National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The report highlights significant underestimations of PM emissions from the mine in previous assessments and notes a critical lack of accurate local air monitoring data.

• Air dispersion modeling indicates that combined emissions of Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) from the proposed Thabametsi power plant (1200 MW), and the existing Matimba and Medupi power plants, would exceed South Africa's health-based National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) at several receptor locations.
• While NOx and PM2.5 emissions from the three power plants alone do not exceed ambient standards due to dilution from tall stacks, they are expected to cause NAAQS exceedances when added to existing baseline levels. These baseline levels are already near maximum limits due to mobile sources and the Grootegeluk Mine.
• The author concludes that PM2.5 and PM10 impacts from the proposed Thabametsi mine's activities on locations to the south-west are likely to be significant.
• The report asserts that PM emissions for the Thabametsi mine were significantly understated in a September 2012 report by Airshed Planning Professionals (Pty) Ltd, estimating that actual emissions are underestimated by at least five times.
• The underestimation of mine emissions is attributed to the 2012 report grouping activities into only five sources, failing to spatially distribute emissions, and using overly optimistic mitigation reduction assumptions of 50-70% that may not be feasible due to regional water scarcity.
• Baseline air quality monitoring in the area is deemed inadequate; the author notes there are too few monitors and those functioning are not appropriately sited, meaning ambient air pollution is not being accurately measured.
• Due to the inability to obtain electronic hourly meteorological data for the site despite requests and a Promotion of Access to Information Act request, the modeling utilized a representative data set from a topographically consistent location in the United States.

APA

Sahu, R. (., & Gray, A. (2018). Report on Thabametsi Mine and Power Plant Modeling. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-3-Thabametsi-Sahu-Report-3.23.18-Sahu-Signed.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Sahu, Ranajit (Ron), and Andrew Gray. Report on Thabametsi Mine and Power Plant Modeling. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2018. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-3-Thabametsi-Sahu-Report-3.23.18-Sahu-Signed.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sahu |first1=Ranajit (Ron) |last2=Gray |first2=Andrew |title=Report on Thabametsi Mine and Power Plant Modeling |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=23 March 2018 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-3-Thabametsi-Sahu-Report-3.23.18-Sahu-Signed.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sahu2018report, author = {Sahu, Ranajit (Ron) and Gray, Andrew}, title = {{Report on Thabametsi Mine and Power Plant Modeling}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2018}, month = mar, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Annexure-3-Thabametsi-Sahu-Report-3.23.18-Sahu-Signed.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }