Quantified Carbon

The study evaluates four primary technology pathways for Germany's power sector decarbonisation by 2050: 'All Tech.' (inclusive of nuclear and CCS), 'No CCS', 'No Nucl.', and 'No Nucl. No CCS'. The 'All Tech.' scenario is identified as the most competitive, offering the lowest total system costs and electricity prices. The 'No Nucl. No CCS' scenario, which most closely represents current German policy, results in the highest costs, highest electricity price volatility, and greatest reliance on transmission and hydrogen infrastructure. The analysis emphasizes that nuclear power and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) significantly enhance economic competitiveness and system resilience. It also explores the role of long-duration energy storage (LDES), finding that 24-hour systems can facilitate solar expansion and reduce reliance on costly hydrogen-fuelled power plants.

• The 'All Tech.' pathway, which embraces all supply technologies including nuclear and CCS, is the most competitive option for the German power system in terms of total system costs and electricity prices.
• The 'No Nucl. No CCS' scenario, reflecting current German energy policy, is the least competitive, with total system costs approximately 30% higher than the 'All Tech.' scenario and average electricity prices nearing 100 €/MWh.
• Nuclear power is highly cost-competitive; if build rate constraints were removed, its expansion could approach 100 GW, replacing a substantial portion of wind, solar, and Gas CCS capacity.
• Gas CCS is a competitive source of dispatchable power, with a projected installed capacity of 44 GW in the 'All Tech.' scenario by 2050, though its effectiveness depends on achieving at least 95% capture efficiency.
• Hydrogen-fuelled power plants are identified as a 'last resort' for firm capacity due to high LCOE (between 200 and 360 €/MWh) and low round-trip efficiency.
• The 'No Nucl. No CCS' scenario exhibits the highest reliance on power transmission and hydrogen infrastructure, requiring up to 39,023 km of new transmission expansion in conservative cases.
• Long-duration energy storage (LDES), specifically 24-hour systems, can reduce reliance on hydrogen and open-cycle gas peaker plants while enabling larger solar expansion.
• The study recommends restarting six recently shut down nuclear reactors (8 GW capacity) as the most cost-effective near-term low-carbon addition to the grid.
• Onshore wind is highly cost-effective and reaches its expansion limit of 143 GW by 2035 in the reference scenario, based on allocating 2% of the country's area to wind parks.
• Electricity price volatility is significantly higher in scenarios excluding nuclear power, as these systems are more exposed to weather-dependent generation fluctuations.

APA

Såmark-Roth, A., Hellesen, C., Jurasz, J., Lundström, L., Lagnelöv, O., Kies, A., Cox, D., Damasceno, D., Dąbek, P., & Yang, Y. (n.d.). Quantified Carbon. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/19101843/qc-germany-report.pdf

Chicago

Såmark-Roth, Anton, Carl Hellesen, Jakub Jurasz, Lukas Lundström, Oscar Lagnelöv, Alexander Kies, Daniel Cox, et al. Quantified Carbon. Clean Air Task Force, n.d. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/19101843/qc-germany-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{smarkrothndquantified, author = {Såmark-Roth, Anton and Hellesen, Carl and Jurasz, Jakub and Lundström, Lukas and Lagnelöv, Oscar and Kies, Alexander and Cox, Daniel and Damasceno, Davi and Dąbek, Paweł and Yang, Ying}, title = {{Quantified Carbon}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/19101843/qc-germany-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }