Closing the Gap: Delivering on the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution

The U.S. aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) provide significant reductions, a gap of approximately 810 million tonnes CO2e remains. The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) proposes a 'high impact' scenario leveraging Clean Air Act regulatory authority and agriculture/forestry spending to close this gap.

• The U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target is to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030.
• The power sector represents the largest mitigation opportunity to close the NDC gap, estimated at between 490 and 560 million tonnes (MT) of CO2e, primarily because the IRA does not mandate emissions reductions from existing fossil-fired power plants.
• A 'high impact' scenario utilizing existing Clean Air Act regulatory authority could reduce emissions by 764 million tonnes in 2030, bringing the U.S. to a 49% reduction compared to 2005 levels.
• To fully close the remaining 46 million tonne gap after high-impact regulations, the U.S. can prioritize carbon sequestration and mitigation in agriculture and forestry through existing federal spending programs, with an estimated cost of $460 million.
• The high-impact scenario includes specific regulatory targets: 90% carbon capture and storage (CCS) for new gas-fired electric generating units by 2024, and 50% CCS for existing coal and natural gas plants by 2030.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (2023). Closing the Gap: Delivering on the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/21112755/ndc-gap-analysis.pdf

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. Closing the Gap: Delivering on the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution. 2023. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/21112755/ndc-gap-analysis.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=Closing the Gap: Delivering on the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution |date=April 2023 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/21112755/ndc-gap-analysis.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforce2023closing, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{Closing the Gap: Delivering on the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/21112755/ndc-gap-analysis.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }