Deaths by Dirty Diesel Map: Health Impacts Methodology

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) used the U.S. EPA's CO-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) version 4.0 to model the health effects of 2023 diesel emissions from highway and off-highway sectors. The methodology employs a damage function approach to translate emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide into premature mortality, hospital admissions, and economic costs. For 2023, the model estimated premature deaths from diesel exhaust to be between 3,900 and 8,800, a decrease from the 2016 range of 6,300 to 14,200. Additionally, using a 2015 California Air Resources Board risk factor, CATF estimated that 2023 diesel particulate concentrations of 0.26 ug/m3 result in a national risk of 228 lifetime cancers per million people, totaling nearly 80,000 cancer cases.

• The analysis utilizes the U.S. EPA's CO-Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) screening model to estimate health impacts from 2023 diesel engine emissions in both highway and off-highway sectors, focusing on the contribution of direct PM, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide to ambient PM2.5 levels.
• Premature mortality attributed to diesel exhaust decreased from a 2016 range of 6,300 to 14,200 deaths to a 2023 range of 3,900 to 8,800 deaths. The variation in these ranges depends on whether the Krewski or Lepeule concentration-response functions are used.
• The COBRA model employs a three-step damage function approach: calculating the impact of emissions on ambient PM2.5 levels, estimating adverse health impacts using epidemiological concentration-response functions, and assigning monetized economic values to those effects.
• Economic damages are calculated using different unit values based on the health endpoint: cost of illness (COI) for hospital admissions, willingness to pay (WTP) for asthma exacerbation, and value of statistical life (VSL) for premature mortality.
• Based on a 2015 California Air Resources Board (CARB) risk factor and projected 2023 concentrations of 0.26 ug/m3, the national cancer risk from diesel particulate matter is estimated at 228 lifetime cancers per million people, which equates to nearly 80,000 cases across the nation.

APA

Clean Air Task Force (n.d.). Deaths by Dirty Diesel Map: Health Impacts Methodology. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/06091832/deaths-dirty-diesel-methodology.pdf

Chicago

Clean Air Task Force. Deaths by Dirty Diesel Map: Health Impacts Methodology. n.d. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/06091832/deaths-dirty-diesel-methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Clean Air Task Force |title=Deaths by Dirty Diesel Map: Health Impacts Methodology |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/06091832/deaths-dirty-diesel-methodology.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cleanairtaskforcenddeaths, author = {{Clean Air Task Force}}, title = {{Deaths by Dirty Diesel Map: Health Impacts Methodology}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/06091832/deaths-dirty-diesel-methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }