The road to COP29: Finance, geopolitical uncertainty, and the need for a new global paradigm

The document argues that while COP28 increased ambition through technology inclusivity and pledges to scale renewables and nuclear energy, the transition now depends on effective financing and planning amidst significant geopolitical instability. It highlights that 2024 is a critical year due to widespread democratic elections and rising trade protectionism, which may prioritize domestic security over climate action. Looking toward COP29 in Baku, the authors expect a focus on the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG), the phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and the need for more realistic macroeconomic modeling to address a global climate financing gap estimated between $4.5 to $10 trillion per year. The text suggests that because multilateral consensus is increasingly difficult, progress will likely shift toward regional climate weeks and bi- or trilateral partnerships.

• COP28 marked a shift toward technology inclusivity by explicitly recognizing the roles of nuclear energy and carbon management in its final negotiated decision, while acknowledging that energy transition strategies and timelines will vary by region.
• The global climate financing gap is estimated to be between $4.5 trillion and $10 trillion annually, and emerging and developing economies may need to double or quadruple their current clean energy investments, excluding adaptation needs.
• Geopolitical instability in 2024, driven by democratic elections in over half the global population and a trend toward decoupling global supply chains, threatens the execution of climate ambitions as domestic security and economic imperatives take precedence.
• COP29 is expected to focus on the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG), the implementation of the COP26 agreement to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and the refinement of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

APA

Yellen, D., Tremain, R., & Spokas, K. (2024). The road to COP29: Finance, geopolitical uncertainty, and the need for a new global paradigm. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/2024/02/road-cop29-finance-geopolitical-uncertainty-need-new-global-paradigm/

Chicago

Yellen, David, Rebecca Tremain, and Kasparas Spokas. The road to COP29: Finance, geopolitical uncertainty, and the need for a new global paradigm. Clean Air Task Force, 2024. https://www.catf.us/2024/02/road-cop29-finance-geopolitical-uncertainty-need-new-global-paradigm/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yellen |first1=David |last2=Tremain |first2=Rebecca |last3=Spokas |first3=Kasparas |title=The road to COP29: Finance, geopolitical uncertainty, and the need for a new global paradigm |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=15 February 2024 |url=https://www.catf.us/2024/02/road-cop29-finance-geopolitical-uncertainty-need-new-global-paradigm/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yellen2024road, author = {Yellen, David and Tremain, Rebecca and Spokas, Kasparas}, title = {{The road to COP29: Finance, geopolitical uncertainty, and the need for a new global paradigm}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2024}, month = feb, url = {https://www.catf.us/2024/02/road-cop29-finance-geopolitical-uncertainty-need-new-global-paradigm/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }