The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

The study establishes a significant positive correlation between temperature increases and cholera cases in Tanzania, predicting that a 1 degree Celsius rise in annual mean temperature increases the risk ratio for cholera by 23 to 51 percent. By 2030, the total economic cost of additional cholera cases and deaths—including treatment, productivity loss, and the value of statistical life—is projected to range from 1.4 to 7.8 percent of GDP. The authors argue that the costs of these climate-driven health impacts largely exceed the costs of preventive measures, such as household chlorination and improved water sanitation.

• There is a significant positive relationship between temperature and cholera cases in Tanzania; a 1 degree Celsius increase in annual mean temperature is predicted to increase the initial risk ratio for cholera by 23 to 51 percent.
• By 2030, the total economic costs of cholera attributed to climate change, which include reactive treatment costs, lost productivity, and the value of statistical life, are estimated to be between 1.4 and 7.8 percent of Tanzania's GDP.
• The cost of reactive adaptation (treatment) for additional cholera cases attributed to climate change by 2030 is projected to be between 0.02 and 0.09 percent of GDP.
• The economic burden of mortality is the largest component of the total cost; the share of GDP attributed to residual deaths ranges from 1.38 percent in the lower 1 degree Celsius scenario to 7.68 percent in the upper 2 degree Celsius scenario.
• Preventive measures, such as household chlorination and water source improvements, are found to be more cost-effective than reactive adaptation, with the costs of additional cholera impacts by 2030 largely exceeding the costs of these preventive measures.
• While climate variables significantly impact the number of cholera cases, the case fatality rate is more closely linked to socioeconomic factors, specifically increasing as income and access to safe water decrease.

APA

Trærup, S. L. M., Ortiz, R. A., & Markandya, A. (2010). The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201001110143311052083638.pdf

Chicago

Trærup, Sara L. M., Ramon Arigoni Ortiz, and Anil Markandya. The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2010. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201001110143311052083638.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Trærup |first1=Sara L. M. |last2=Ortiz |first2=Ramon Arigoni |last3=Markandya |first3=Anil |title=The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=January 2010 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201001110143311052083638.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{trrup2010health, author = {Trærup, Sara L. M. and Ortiz, Ramon Arigoni and Markandya, Anil}, title = {{The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2010}, month = jan, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201001110143311052083638.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }