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This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the security challenges and potential scenarios surrounding the January 9, 2011, referendum on South Sudan's right to secede from Sudan. It examines the political dynamics between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM), the risks of a return to war, and the roles of regional and international actors in maintaining stability during the transition.

This report summarizes an expert roundtable held on September 30, 2010, regarding the potential secession of Southern Sudan following its scheduled January 2011 self-determination referendum. It examines the unresolved issues between Northern and Southern Sudan, the internal challenges facing a potential new state, and the resulting security and economic implications for the Horn and central Africa regions.

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the fragile implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan as of May 2007. It details significant failures in security arrangements, the lack of a functioning population census, and the political tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of planned national elections.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the precarious security situation in southern Sudan following the May 2004 IGAD framework agreement. It argues that widespread breaches of existing security agreements, a profound lack of trust between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), and the failure of monitoring mechanisms threaten the long-term viability of the peace process.