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ESKOM’S FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE VIABILITY OF COAL-FIRED POWER IN SOUTH AFRICA
The report argues that Eskom is facing a liquidity and financial crisis driven by stagnant electricity demand and the high costs of its coal-fired power construction programme. Through system-level modelling and station-specific analysis, the study finds that the levelised costs of operating older coal stations (Arnot, Camden, Grootvlei, Hendrina, and Komati) exceed their system alternative value, meaning they can be replaced by cheaper alternatives without compromising security of supply. Specifically, decommissioning Grootvlei, Hendrina, and Komati early could save Eskom R12.5bn in present value terms. Additionally, the report finds that cancelling Kusile units 5 and 6 is economically viable if capital cost savings exceed a threshold of approximately R4.7bn. The authors conclude that South Africa no longer requires new nuclear, coal, or gas procurement, as solar PV and wind have become the most competitive new-build options.
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Document type: Report