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Precarious Transparency: Artificial Intelligence, Space-Based ISR Capabilities, and US-China Strategic Stability
The report argues that AI-enhanced ISR creates "precarious transparency," where sensing advances are unevenly distributed across different tasks and scenarios. While these tools improve the detection of static objects and peacetime verification, they remain fragile when applied to tracking mobile missiles or operating under wartime countermeasures. The authors conclude that these capabilities asymmetrically favor the United States, which may provoke China to expand its nuclear forces or employ counterspace capabilities more aggressively, thereby increasing the risk of instability.
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Document type: Research paper