Search Climate Insights Directory

The study analyzes 48 bottom-up energy system scenarios for Japan's 2030 GHG emissions. It finds that high-mitigation scenarios consistent with a 2°C target result in emissions 16-39% below 1990 levels. The authors argue that a minimum reduction of 25% from 1990 levels is necessary, which could be achieved through a combination of restarting nuclear reactors, increasing renewable energy and CCS deployment, and significantly reducing total final consumption (TFC). The paper emphasizes that the choice between coal and natural gas for electricity is as critical as the share of renewables, noting that unabated coal-fired power must remain below 21% to achieve reductions exceeding 20% from 1990 levels.