Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil

Attribution studies in Brazil indicate that fossil fuel combustion increased the likelihood and intensity of recent floods in Rio Grande do Sul and droughts in the Amazon. Despite these impacts, the Brazilian government continues to support oil and gas expansion, with plans to increase oil production by 63% and gas by 124% by 2032. Petrobras, which controls over 90% of domestic production, is estimated to be responsible for USD 500 billion in climate damages between 2018 and 2023. While Brazil has pledged to reduce emissions by up to 67% by 2035 and has successfully increased wind and solar power to reduce reliance on hydropower, its overall climate policies are rated as 'Insufficient' by Climate Action Tracker.

• Attribution studies have linked fossil fuel use to increased extreme weather in Brazil. Specifically, the April-May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul were made more likely by a factor of 2 and 6-9% more intense due to fossil fuel burning. Additionally, the agricultural drought in the Amazon river basin between June and November 2023 was made 30 times more likely due to climate change.
• Petrobras dominates Brazil's oil and gas sector, operating over 90% of production. While the company reports a 24% drop in operational emissions from 2015 to 2023, data from the Carbon Majors database shows overall emissions (including sold products) fell by only 2.7% between 2015 and 2022. Financial estimates suggest Petrobras is responsible for USD 500 billion in climate damages for the period 2018-2023, compared to USD 700 billion in financial gains.
• The Brazilian government continues to incentivize fossil fuel expansion despite net-zero goals. Plans through 2032 aim to increase oil production by 63% and gas by 124%, supported by USD 8.6 billion in tax expenditures and direct budgetary transfers. Total federal fossil fuel subsidies reached USD 14.56 billion in 2022. Brazil joined the OPEC+ Charter of Cooperation in early 2024 to coordinate supply levels.
• Brazil's energy transition involves diversifying its electricity mix to reduce overreliance on hydropower, which provided 60% of generation in 2023. Wind energy's share grew from 1% in 2013 to 13% in 2023, and solar energy now accounts for just over 7% of the mix. In transport, the government focuses on biofuels, while electric vehicle adoption remains low; only 0.5% of vehicles sold in 2021 were plug-in hybrids or battery electric vehicles.

APA

Team, Z. (2024). Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2024. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=21 November 2024 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2024oil, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }