Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the link between fossil fuel production and extreme weather events in Brazil, specifically focusing on the financial responsibility of Petrobras and the tension between the government's net-zero goals and its continued expansion of oil and gas extraction.

• Attribution studies indicate that fossil fuel combustion has increased the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather in Brazil. Specifically, the April-May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul were made more than twice as likely and 6-9% more intense due to fossil fuels. Additionally, an agricultural drought in the Amazon river basin between June and November 2023 was made 30 times more likely because of climate change.
• Petrobras, which controls over 90% of Brazil's oil and gas production, is estimated to be responsible for USD 500 billion in climate damages for emissions between 2018 and 2023. This figure is based on a social cost of carbon of USD 185 per tonne and the assumption that producers are responsible for one-third of damages. This is compared against USD 700 billion in financial gains for the company during that period.
• Despite national goals to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and a pledge to reduce emissions by up to 67% by 2035 (relative to 2005 levels), Brazil continues to expand fossil fuel production. The 2023 UN Production Gap report indicates government plans to increase oil production by 63% and gas by 124% up to 2032. Federal fossil fuel subsidies for oil, gas, and coal totaled USD 14.56 billion in 2022.
• Brazil's electricity mix is heavily reliant on hydropower (60% in 2023), but the government has used subsidies and auctions to diversify. Wind energy's share of electricity generation grew from 1% in 2013 to 13% in 2023, while solar energy accounts for just over 7% of the mix.

APA

Team, Z. (2024). Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2024. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=21 November 2024 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2024oil, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Oil and gas fuelling extreme weather in Brazil}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/oil-and-gas-fuelling-extreme-weather-in-brazil/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }