Decarbonising for competitive advantage in Poland

The document examines how Poland's high-carbon, energy-intensive economy leads to higher power and gas prices for businesses compared to the EU average, as well as significant costs from the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). It posits that transitioning to renewables and improving energy efficiency can lower production costs, stabilize energy prices through Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), and increase GDP. The briefing highlights that achieving net-zero emissions could add 0.2% to Poland's annual GDP through 2050. It also discusses the role of emissions transparency and the growth of the service sector as additional avenues for competitive differentiation.

• Poland's reliance on fossil fuels results in higher energy costs for non-household consumers compared to the EU average. At the end of 2024, Poland had the fourth-highest power prices in the EU at EUR 0.26/kWh, and as of the end of 2023, it had the fourth-highest gas prices at approximately EUR 0.073/kWh.
• The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) imposes significant costs on Polish businesses due to the country's carbon-intensive energy mix. The 'ETS gap' cost Polish businesses an estimated USD 8 billion in 2022, a figure the World Bank predicts could rise to nearly USD 40 billion by 2030 under current policies.
• Transitioning to net-zero emissions is projected to provide a macroeconomic boost to Poland. The World Bank estimates this transition will add approximately 0.2% to the country's annual GDP between now and 2050, resulting in a cumulative GDP increase of 4% by 2050 compared to current policy trajectories.
• Energy efficiency improvements can lead to substantial long-term cost reductions for businesses. While initial annual savings for heavy and light industry are estimated between 5% and 18%, cumulative long-term energy cost savings can reach 40-60%.
• Renewable energy sources offer lower and more stable pricing than wholesale markets. Government auctions for onshore wind and solar PV have awarded contracts (ranging from PLN 100/MWh to PLN 329/MWh) that are well below recent wholesale prices of around PLN 425/MWh. Additionally, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for solar (approx. EUR 78/MWh) and wind (approx. EUR 94.5/MWh) provide further cost reductions and insulation from fossil fuel volatility.
• Poland's National Energy and Climate Plan, updated in July 2025, targets a 53.9% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (against a 1990 baseline). This goal requires increasing the share of renewables in electricity consumption to 51.8% and reducing final energy consumption by approximately 12.8% (58.5 Mtoe) by 2030.

APA

Woodman, B. (2025). Decarbonising for competitive advantage in Poland. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/decarbonising-for-competitive-advantage-in-poland/

Chicago

Woodman, Bridget. Decarbonising for competitive advantage in Poland. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/decarbonising-for-competitive-advantage-in-poland/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Woodman |first1=Bridget |title=Decarbonising for competitive advantage in Poland |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=12 November 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/decarbonising-for-competitive-advantage-in-poland/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{woodman2025decarbonising, author = {Woodman, Bridget}, title = {{Decarbonising for competitive advantage in Poland}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/decarbonising-for-competitive-advantage-in-poland/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }