The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts

The Institute for Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) produces energy forecasts with significantly higher gas demand and carbon emissions than those of the IEA, ExxonMobil, and BP. This is driven by higher projected costs for solar and wind, a preference for thermal power as a backup to renewables, and optimistic forecasts for carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment. The IEEJ maintains close ties to the Japanese government and industry, while Japan remains a major global financier and trader of gas.

• The IEEJ's gas demand forecasts are significantly higher than those of other major energy organisations. In its current trends scenario, the IEEJ projects gas demand by 2050 to be 20% higher than the IEA's comparable scenario, and also higher than projections from BP and ExxonMobil.
• The discrepancy in gas demand is primarily driven by forecasts for power generation. Between 2030 and 2050, the IEEJ projects gas use in power to increase by approximately 950 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, whereas the IEA expects a decrease of 117 bcm. In South East Asia's energy transition scenario, the IEEJ projects gas will generate 743% more electricity than the IEA's comparable scenario.
• The IEEJ's modelling assumptions make gas more competitive than renewables by overestimating the cost of solar and wind by 56-108% compared to IEA predictions. Additionally, the IEEJ prioritises thermal power as a backup for renewables over technologies like demand response or batteries, stating it is "desirable to not depend excessively on renewables".
• The IEEJ forecasts a much larger scale of carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment than the IEA, projecting more than six times the amount of thermal power with CCS by 2050.
• The IEEJ maintains strong institutional links to the Japanese government and industry. It was founded by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (now METI), and its current Chairman and CEO is a former METI vice minister and director-general. Its operations are funded by over 100 companies, though the identities of these members are not publicly disclosed.

APA

Team, Z. (2025). The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=18 June 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2025ieej, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }