The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts

This fact sheet by Zero Carbon Analytics analyzes the energy forecasts of the Institute for Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ), arguing that the institute projects unrealistically high future gas demand compared to the IEA, ExxonMobil, and BP. The document attributes these high forecasts to the IEEJ's assumptions regarding the high cost of renewables, a preference for thermal power as a backup, and an optimistic outlook for carbon capture and storage (CCS).

• The IEEJ forecasts significantly higher gas demand and carbon emissions than other organizations. In its current trends scenario, the IEEJ projects gas demand by 2050 to be 20% higher than the comparable IEA scenario, and higher than projections from BP and ExxonMobil.
• The IEEJ's high gas demand forecasts are primarily driven by its projections for gas use in power generation. Between 2030 and 2050, the IEEJ projects an increase of approximately 950 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, whereas the IEA expects a decrease of 117 bcm in the same period. In South East Asia's energy transition scenario, the IEEJ projects gas will generate 743% more electricity than the IEA's comparable scenario.
• The IEEJ's modeling assumptions make gas more competitive than renewables by predicting that solar and wind will be 56-108% more expensive than IEA predictions. Additionally, the IEEJ prioritizes thermal power as a backup to renewables, stating it is "desirable to not depend excessively on renewables," rather than using demand response or batteries.
• The IEEJ's energy transition scenario predicts a massive expansion of carbon capture and storage (CCS), forecasting more than six times the amount of thermal power with CCS by 2050 compared to the IEA.
• The IEEJ is a Japanese research institute founded in 1966 by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (now METI). While it became independent in 2012, it maintains close ties to the government—with its Chairman and CEO being a former METI vice minister—and is funded by over 100 companies, though the identities of these members are not public.

APA

Team, Z. (2025). The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=18 June 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2025ieej, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{The IEEJ: Japan's Unrealistic Gas Forecasts}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/data-explainer-the-ieej-japans-unrealistic-gas-forecasts/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }