Towards a science-based definition of unabated fossil fuels

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics argues for a rigorous, science-based definition of 'unabated fossil fuels' to prevent the use of weak policies and inadequate technologies from undermining the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C. It highlights that while the term has become central to G7, G20, and UN climate negotiations, the lack of a consensus definition allows for interpretations that may include low carbon capture rates or ignore upstream emissions.

• The term 'unabated' has become a central point of international climate diplomacy, appearing in G7, G20, and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agreements since May 2021, yet it lacks an officially agreed-upon definition.
• Current global carbon capture and storage (CCS) capacity is extremely limited, representing only 0.1% of global fossil fuel emissions, meaning 99.9% of these emissions currently come from unabated fossil fuels.
• Existing definitions of 'unabated' from the IEA and US Special Envoy John Kerry are considered problematic because they do not specify high carbon capture rates and exclude upstream emissions, which account for nearly 15% of total energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.
• Real-world CCS projects often fail to achieve high capture rates; examples include the Century Gas Processing Plant in Texas (under 10%), Quest in Alberta (39%), Gorgon in Australia (45%), and Boundary Dam in Washington State (65%).
• A science-based definition of abatement must require carbon capture rates of at least 90-95%, permanent underground geological storage, and the virtual elimination of upstream and transport emissions (with methane intensity at 0.5% or lower).
• To limit global warming to 1.5°C, the use of fossil fuels that do not meet stringent abatement requirements must be reduced to a minimum by 2050; the IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario projects a total use reduction of coal, oil, and natural gas by 87% by 2050.

APA

Team, Z. (2023). Towards a science-based definition of unabated fossil fuels. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/towards-a-science-based-definition-of-unabated-fossil-fuels/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Towards a science-based definition of unabated fossil fuels. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2023. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/towards-a-science-based-definition-of-unabated-fossil-fuels/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Towards a science-based definition of unabated fossil fuels |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=23 November 2023 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/towards-a-science-based-definition-of-unabated-fossil-fuels/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2023towards, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Towards a science-based definition of unabated fossil fuels}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/uncategorized/towards-a-science-based-definition-of-unabated-fossil-fuels/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }