Scenarios for InVEST: A Primer

The document explains how scenarios—depicted as maps of land cover or marine habitats—are used in InVEST to compare the delivery of ecosystem services under alternative futures. It outlines characteristics of effective scenarios, such as being plausible, legitimate, and scientifically credible, and provides a framework for converting narrative storylines into quantitative maps. Through case studies in Hawaii, Borneo, Tanzania, and Canada, the primer demonstrates how scenarios can inform integrated spatial plans, green economy policies, carbon project feasibility, and marine spatial planning.

• InVEST utilizes scenarios to allow users to compare ecosystem service delivery across plausible futures, identify tradeoffs of different policies, evaluate policy resilience against unexpected changes, and build stakeholder consensus around a shared vision.
• For InVEST to function, scenarios must be translated into spatial maps of land cover, coastal habitats, or marine uses, which then serve as inputs for the software's biophysical and economic models.
• Effective scenarios are characterized by several key attributes, including relevance to stakeholder interests, legitimacy through diverse views, plausibility, scientific credibility, and the ability to be iterative and surprising.
• Scenario drivers differ by environment: terrestrial and freshwater models focus on land cover, management practices, and human assumptions, while marine models focus on coastal development, habitat distribution, and human ocean uses.
• Case studies demonstrate the practical application of InVEST scenarios: in Hawaii, they helped prioritize diversified agriculture and forestry; in Borneo, they provided a scientific basis for 'green economy' policies; in Tanzania, they identified candidate areas for REDD+ and voluntary carbon projects; and in Canada, they informed a marine spatial plan for Vancouver Island.

APA

McKenzie, E., Chaplin-Kramer, B., Conner, C., Guerry, A., Ricketts, T., & Rosenthal, A. (2012). Scenarios for InVEST: A Primer. WWF International. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/847/8xtu9jj03q_InVEST_Scenarios_Primer_SHORT_fin.pdf

Chicago

McKenzie, Emily, Becky Chaplin-Kramer, Chris Conner, Anne Guerry, Taylor Ricketts, and Amy Rosenthal. Scenarios for InVEST: A Primer. WWF International, 2012. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/847/8xtu9jj03q_InVEST_Scenarios_Primer_SHORT_fin.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{mckenzie2012scenarios, author = {McKenzie, Emily and Chaplin-Kramer, Becky and Conner, Chris and Guerry, Anne and Ricketts, Taylor and Rosenthal, Amy}, title = {{Scenarios for InVEST: A Primer}}, institution = {WWF International}, year = {2012}, url = {https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/847/8xtu9jj03q_InVEST_Scenarios_Primer_SHORT_fin.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }