The Economics of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

WWF-US analysis, utilizing Rystad Energy modeling, concludes that oil development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is economically unviable. The study finds that the breakeven price for the nine leases awarded in 2021 ranges from $62.5 to $83.60 per barrel, significantly exceeding projected future oil prices under various scenarios, including the IEA's Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario. Additionally, the report highlights substantial risks from thawing permafrost impacting infrastructure, high costs of frontier development, and a growing lack of financial and insurance support from major global institutions.

• The breakeven price for oil development from the nine leases awarded in January 2021 in the Arctic Refuge is estimated to be between $62.5 and $83.60 per barrel, with an average of $77.10.
• Based on projected oil prices for 2040—ranging from $28 in the IEA Net-Zero scenario to $50 in the Rystad base case—the Arctic Refuge leases are unlikely to be economic to produce, meaning the U.S. will not gain significant revenue from the leasing program.
• There is a significant discrepancy between technically recoverable oil and economically recoverable oil in the Coastal Plain; while the USGS estimates 7.7 billion technically recoverable barrels, Rystad Energy modeling suggests only 668 million barrels could be economically recoverable if market scenarios improve.
• The 2021 lease sale demonstrated low industry interest, with major oil companies failing to bid and the sale generating only $14.4 million, which is less than 1% of the federal revenue Congress had anticipated.
• Climate change is increasing operational costs and risks in Alaska, specifically through thawing permafrost which threatens the integrity of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline and other infrastructure.
• Financial and insurance barriers are mounting, as 37 of 39 banks monitored by BankTrack have full or partial exclusion policies for Arctic oil and gas, and several major U.S. banks have committed not to finance projects in the Arctic Refuge.

APA

Field, A., Williams, M., & Freund, E. (n.d.). The Economics of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. WWF International. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/414/2x48k6w2jd_Economics_of_Oil_Development_in_Arctic_Refuge.pdf

Chicago

Field, Anthony, Margaret Williams, and Evan Freund. The Economics of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. WWF International, n.d. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/414/2x48k6w2jd_Economics_of_Oil_Development_in_Arctic_Refuge.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Field |first1=Anthony |last2=Williams |first2=Margaret |last3=Freund |first3=Evan |title=The Economics of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge |publisher=WWF International |url=https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/414/2x48k6w2jd_Economics_of_Oil_Development_in_Arctic_Refuge.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fieldndeconomics, author = {Field, Anthony and Williams, Margaret and Freund, Evan}, title = {{The Economics of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge}}, institution = {WWF International}, url = {https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/414/2x48k6w2jd_Economics_of_Oil_Development_in_Arctic_Refuge.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }