Can Japan Improve on its INDC-based Target for CO2 Intensity in the Electricity Sector? Estimation of Renewable Electricity and Nuclear Power in 2030

The paper evaluates whether Japan can exceed its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and voluntary corporate targets for electricity sector CO2 intensity. It estimates that by utilizing nuclear power (108–130 TWh) and renewables, Japan could achieve an intensity of 0.34 to 0.36 kgCO2/kWh. However, the study highlights that significant renewable potential in regions like Hokkaido and Tohoku remains under-utilized due to limited grid interconnection capacity and a lack of storage technology.

• Japan could achieve a CO2 emissions intensity of 0.36 kgCO2/kWh in 2030 (Scenario A) using 334 TWh from renewable energy and 130 TWh from nuclear power, assuming current grid interconnection capacity remains unchanged.
• Including 46 TWh of offshore wind power (Scenario B) could further reduce the electricity sector's CO2 intensity to 0.34 kgCO2/kWh.
• The estimated potential for nuclear power generation in 2030 is between 108 and 130 TWh, which would represent approximately 12% of the total electricity supply.
• While Japan's renewable energy potential is high, current grid limitations prevent full utilization; in Scenario A, 38 TWh of renewable electricity cannot be used, and in Scenario B, 111 TWh of wind power potential remains unused.
• There is a significant geographic mismatch between renewable energy potential and demand, with Hokkaido and Tohoku having huge surpluses while Tokyo, Chubu, and Kansai have high demands.
• To realize greater renewable energy use, the paper argues that Japan must expand interconnection grid capacity, particularly between Hokkaido and Tohoku, and invest in stabilization technologies like storage batteries and pumped storage hydropower.
• The study notes that achieving the INDC's estimated intensity of 0.36 kgCO2/kWh requires replacing fossil-fuel power plants older than 40 years with more efficient new models; otherwise, intensity would rise to 0.375 kgCO2/kWh.

APA

Wakiyama, T., & Kuriyama, A. (2015). Can Japan Improve on its INDC-based Target for CO2 Intensity in the Electricity Sector? Estimation of Renewable Electricity and Nuclear Power in 2030. World Resources Institute. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/Can_Japan_Improve_on_its_INDC.pdf

Chicago

Wakiyama, Takako, and Akihisa Kuriyama. Can Japan Improve on its INDC-based Target for CO2 Intensity in the Electricity Sector? Estimation of Renewable Electricity and Nuclear Power in 2030. World Resources Institute, 2015. https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/Can_Japan_Improve_on_its_INDC.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wakiyama |first1=Takako |last2=Kuriyama |first2=Akihisa |title=Can Japan Improve on its INDC-based Target for CO2 Intensity in the Electricity Sector? Estimation of Renewable Electricity and Nuclear Power in 2030 |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=December 2015 |url=https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/Can_Japan_Improve_on_its_INDC.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wakiyama2015can, author = {Wakiyama, Takako and Kuriyama, Akihisa}, title = {{Can Japan Improve on its INDC-based Target for CO2 Intensity in the Electricity Sector? Estimation of Renewable Electricity and Nuclear Power in 2030}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2015}, month = dec, url = {https://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/uploads/Can_Japan_Improve_on_its_INDC.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }