Applying Climate Services to Transformative Adaptation in Agriculture

The paper argues that while existing climate services primarily support short-term farming decisions, they must be expanded to include decadal and long-term projections to guide transformative adaptation—significant systemic changes to agricultural production. A review of 253 national documents found that only 2.7% describe transformative applications of CS. The authors recommend integrating long-term climate data with crop models and socioeconomic factors to identify viability thresholds and map adaptation pathways, while emphasizing the need to modernize National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and ensure equitable access for marginalized farmers.

• A review of 253 national documents—including 196 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), 9 National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and 48 submissions to the UNFCCC Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture (KJWA)—reveals that only 7 (2.7%) describe applications of climate services for adaptation planning that could be considered transformative.
• Existing climate services (CS) have largely focused on daily weather and seasonal forecasts for immediate farm management, but transformative adaptation requires a shift toward decadal and longer-term analysis, specifically looking toward 2050, to identify where agricultural systems may no longer be viable.
• To be effective for systemic change, CS must integrate non-agricultural data, including biological, environmental, economic, market, and social factors, to manage cross-sectoral competition for resources like water and land.
• National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) in over 100 countries, half of which are in Africa, require modernization due to deterioration caused by underfunding, weak political mandates, and outdated technology.
• Transformative adaptation pathways—coordinated sequences of short- and medium-term actions—can be informed by CS to identify tipping points, determine viable alternative crops or livestock, and sequence incremental options to phase in long-term shifts.
• Private sector entities are currently leading the use of long-term climate information for investment decisions, such as coffee and cacao producers mapping favorable areas, creating a risk that developing-country governments and marginalized farmers will be left behind.
• In India, the revival of millet production serves as a case study for transformative adaptation, where long-term climate projections and crop models indicated that rice, wheat, and maize would become less viable by the 2050s compared to millet.
• Gender and equity gaps in the production and application of CS can reinforce existing inequalities, as women often have less access to tailored information and the inputs required to act on CS recommendations.

APA

Ashley, L., Carter, R., Ferdinand, T., Choularton, R., Appadurai, N., Ginoya, N., & Preethan, P. (2020). Applying Climate Services to Transformative Adaptation in Agriculture. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/applying-climate-services-transformative-adaptation-agriculture.pdf

Chicago

Ashley, Laurie, Rebecca Carter, Tyler Ferdinand, Richard Choularton, Nambi Appadurai, Namrata Ginoya, and Parvathi Preethan. Applying Climate Services to Transformative Adaptation in Agriculture. World Resources Institute, 2020. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/applying-climate-services-transformative-adaptation-agriculture.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ashley |first1=Laurie |last2=Carter |first2=Rebecca |last3=Ferdinand |first3=Tyler |last4=Choularton |first4=Richard |last5=Appadurai |first5=Nambi |last6=Ginoya |first6=Namrata |last7=Preethan |first7=Parvathi |title=Applying Climate Services to Transformative Adaptation in Agriculture |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=October 2020 |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/applying-climate-services-transformative-adaptation-agriculture.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ashley2020applying, author = {Ashley, Laurie and Carter, Rebecca and Ferdinand, Tyler and Choularton, Richard and Appadurai, Nambi and Ginoya, Namrata and Preethan, Parvathi}, title = {{Applying Climate Services to Transformative Adaptation in Agriculture}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/applying-climate-services-transformative-adaptation-agriculture.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }