Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges

The analysis finds that combined Annex I pledges could reduce emissions by 12% to 19% below 1990 levels by 2020, which is significantly lower than the 25% to 40% reduction identified by the IPCC as necessary to stabilize CO2e concentrations at 450 ppm. The paper highlights that the perceived ambition of these pledges depends heavily on accounting assumptions, specifically the use of international offsets and the inclusion of land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) emissions. For instance, including LULUCF and using a 1990 base year for Canada's pledge allows for significant emissions growth. The author recommends that developed countries implement the higher ranges of their pledges and that the Copenhagen Accord's science review process mandate more ambitious commitments if global pathways remain misaligned with science.

• Combined emission reduction pledges from developed countries could result in a 12% to 19% reduction below 1990 levels by 2020, depending on assumptions. This is insufficient compared to the 25% to 40% reduction the IPCC suggests is needed to stabilize CO2e concentrations at 450 ppm, a level linked to a 26% to 78% risk of exceeding a 2ºC goal.
• If current pledges are not increased, the subsequent reductions required between 2020 and 2050 to reach a target of 80% below 1990 levels by mid-century would be substantial, requiring annual emission drops of approximately 2.5%.
• The perceived stringency of national targets is highly sensitive to the inclusion of land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) emissions and the choice of base year; for example, Canada's pledge allows for significant emissions growth when LULUCF is included and calculated against a 1990 base year.
• The actual environmental effectiveness of pledges, particularly for the United States, depends on whether international offsets are 'real and additional'; if they are not, some pledges will fall far short of their face-value appearance.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges. https://www.wri.org/research/comparability-annex-i-emission-reduction-pledges

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/comparability-annex-i-emission-reduction-pledges.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges |url=https://www.wri.org/research/comparability-annex-i-emission-reduction-pledges |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendcomparability, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/comparability-annex-i-emission-reduction-pledges}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }