Credibility of nationally determined contributions

The document argues that NDC credibility depends on target clarity, institutional capacity, policy adoption, and policy outcomes. It explains how Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) provide the necessary data to assess these components and help countries refine future NDCs. For example, Andorra improved its 2035 NDC credibility by switching from a business-as-usual scenario to an absolute emission reduction goal to increase transparency.

• NDC credibility is determined by four interrelated components: target clarity, capacity and institutional arrangements for implementation, policy adoption, and policy outcome.
• A 'policy adoption gap' occurs when there is a difference between the emission reductions implied by an NDC target and those implied by currently adopted policies; this gap should decrease over time as a country approaches its target year.
• A 'policy outcome gap' arises when current policies fail to achieve the anticipated emission reductions, which can reduce the overall credibility of the NDC.
• Biennial transparency reports (BTRs) support NDC credibility by requiring Parties to specify indicators, assumptions, and methodological approaches, which clarifies targets that may have been ambiguous in the original NDC.
• BTRs provide evidence of a country's capacity to meet goals through reports on national circumstances and institutional arrangements; strong institutions increase confidence and credibility, while weak ones introduce doubt.
• Reporting experience in BTRs can lead countries to adopt more straightforward targets in future NDCs to improve clarity. Andorra, for instance, changed its 2035 NDC target from a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario to an absolute emission reduction goal to remove uncertainty and allow for a more transparent assessment.
• Projections included in BTRs can enhance the credibility of future NDCs if they align with the emission reductions implied by the future target, demonstrating that the target is realistic and achievable.

APA

Cogswell, N., Elliott, C., & Mischke-Reeds, K. (2025). Credibility of nationally determined contributions. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2025-06/credibility-nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs.pdf?VersionId=7JENB4JZuYg1fMALtHCNc8XS.b35lL0d&_gl=1*1cu3gjk*_gcl_au*MTQwODc3MTQ2NS4xNzU3NjA3MDkz

Chicago

Cogswell, Nathan, Cynthia Elliott, and Kirian Mischke-Reeds. Credibility of nationally determined contributions. World Resources Institute, 2025. https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2025-06/credibility-nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs.pdf?VersionId=7JENB4JZuYg1fMALtHCNc8XS.b35lL0d&_gl=1*1cu3gjk*_gcl_au*MTQwODc3MTQ2NS4xNzU3NjA3MDkz.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cogswell |first1=Nathan |last2=Elliott |first2=Cynthia |last3=Mischke-Reeds |first3=Kirian |title=Credibility of nationally determined contributions |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=June 2025 |url=https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2025-06/credibility-nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs.pdf?VersionId=7JENB4JZuYg1fMALtHCNc8XS.b35lL0d&_gl=1*1cu3gjk*_gcl_au*MTQwODc3MTQ2NS4xNzU3NjA3MDkz |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cogswell2025credibility, author = {Cogswell, Nathan and Elliott, Cynthia and Mischke-Reeds, Kirian}, title = {{Credibility of nationally determined contributions}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://files.wri.org/d8/s3fs-public/2025-06/credibility-nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs.pdf?VersionId=7JENB4JZuYg1fMALtHCNc8XS.b35lL0d&_gl=1*1cu3gjk*_gcl_au*MTQwODc3MTQ2NS4xNzU3NjA3MDkz}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }