Ensuring Crop Expansion is Limited to Lands with Low Environmental Opportunity Costs

This research paper from the World Resources Institute proposes a framework to limit new cropland expansion to lands with "low environmental opportunity costs" to avoid the conversion of natural ecosystems. It defines specific biophysical and non-biophysical criteria for identifying such lands and suggests a three-part policy approach to direct expansion away from high-impact areas.

• The document argues that avoiding all cropland expansion may be unrealistic for meeting 2050 food needs. To avoid any increase in harvested area, the annual average increase in crop production per hectare from 2006 to 2050 would need to be approximately one-third higher than the rate seen between 1962 and 2006. Projections for expansion vary significantly, with the FAO estimating 69 million hectares (Mha) and Bajzelj et al. (2014) estimating 655 million hectares between 2009 and 2050.
• The author critiques the use of "marginal" or "degraded lands" as a solution for expansion due to a lack of consensus on definitions, overlapping and inconsistent estimates of location, and the fact that much degraded land is already cropland. Additionally, these lands are often subject to a "race" between competing interests such as bioenergy, wood products, and ecosystem restoration.
• The paper defines lands with low environmental opportunity costs as those meeting four simultaneous biophysical criteria: they must not already support crops, have minimal impact on biodiversity and native ecosystems, possess low "carbon loss to crop production" ratios, and have a low "blue water" footprint.
• Beyond biophysical criteria, the document identifies four non-biophysical considerations for land conversion: economic viability for the farmer, legal availability via zoning and policy, social acceptability by local residents or rights-holders, and whether cropping is the best alternative use compared to native ecosystem recovery.
• The proposed strategy to direct cropland expansion consists of three sets of measures: generating a clear understanding of where low-cost lands are located (via definitions and mapping), facilitating the use of these lands (through tenure clarification and financial incentives), and discouraging expansion into high-cost areas (via moratoriums and "deforestation-free" supply chain commitments).

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Ensuring Crop Expansion is Limited to Lands with Low Environmental Opportunity Costs. https://www.wri.org/research/ensuring-crop-expansion-limited-lands-low-environmental-opportunity-costs

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Ensuring Crop Expansion is Limited to Lands with Low Environmental Opportunity Costs. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/ensuring-crop-expansion-limited-lands-low-environmental-opportunity-costs.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Ensuring Crop Expansion is Limited to Lands with Low Environmental Opportunity Costs |url=https://www.wri.org/research/ensuring-crop-expansion-limited-lands-low-environmental-opportunity-costs |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendensuring, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Ensuring Crop Expansion is Limited to Lands with Low Environmental Opportunity Costs}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/ensuring-crop-expansion-limited-lands-low-environmental-opportunity-costs}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }