Long-term Climate Compatible Growth for India: Modeling Low-carbon Pathways and Policies for India’s Power, Industry, and Transport Sectors

The study calculates India's share of the global carbon budget using four allocation methods and employs four energy-economy models to map low-carbon pathways for the power, industry, and transport sectors through 2050. It finds that while the power sector's 500 GW non-fossil capacity target aligns with these budgets, the industry and transport sectors will become the largest and fastest-growing emission sources, requiring demand reduction and R&D. To support a just transition and ensure emissions reductions, the models suggest a carbon tax of INR 4,000–6,000 per tCO2e (2018 prices) by 2050 for 1.5°C scenarios, noting that India will underconsume its equity-based carbon budget share and requires international finance and technology.

• The study utilizes four specific allocation approaches to determine India's fair share of the remaining global carbon budget: Greenhouse Development Rights, Equal Cumulative Per Capita Emissions, the Fairness Index, and Per Capita Convergence.
• India's power sector is currently decarbonizing, and its target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel electricity capacity is consistent with the calculated carbon budgets, although it still needs policy support.
• Industry and transport—specifically freight trucks—are projected to be the largest and fastest-growing emission sources, respectively, necessitating a decarbonization strategy involving R&D, cost parity, and demand reduction.
• To achieve 1.5°C scenarios, the models suggest implementing a carbon tax of INR 4,000–6,000 per tCO2e (based on 2018 prices) by 2050 to reduce emissions, replace fuel-based tax revenues, and fund clean industry jobs for a just transition.
• In all low carbon scenarios, India is expected to underconsume its equity-based share of the global carbon budget, indicating a need for international technology and finance to support a resilient and just transition.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Long-term Climate Compatible Growth for India: Modeling Low-carbon Pathways and Policies for India’s Power, Industry, and Transport Sectors. https://www.wri.org/research/long-term-climate-compatible-growth-india-low-carbon-pathways

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Long-term Climate Compatible Growth for India: Modeling Low-carbon Pathways and Policies for India’s Power, Industry, and Transport Sectors. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/long-term-climate-compatible-growth-india-low-carbon-pathways.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Long-term Climate Compatible Growth for India: Modeling Low-carbon Pathways and Policies for India’s Power, Industry, and Transport Sectors |url=https://www.wri.org/research/long-term-climate-compatible-growth-india-low-carbon-pathways |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendlongterm, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Long-term Climate Compatible Growth for India: Modeling Low-carbon Pathways and Policies for India’s Power, Industry, and Transport Sectors}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/long-term-climate-compatible-growth-india-low-carbon-pathways}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }