Achieving Replacement Level Fertility

This research paper, part of the "World Resources Report 2013-14: Creating a Sustainable Food Future," examines the impact of population growth on food security, specifically in Sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that accelerating the decline of fertility rates to reach replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman) by 2050 would significantly reduce food demand, spur economic growth via a demographic dividend, and mitigate environmental damage by reducing the need for cropland expansion.

• The United Nations projects the global population will grow from just over 7 billion in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion by 2050. While most regions are near replacement level fertility—defined as the rate where a population replaces itself without migration, typically around 2.1 children per woman—Sub-Saharan Africa is a notable exception.
• Sub-Saharan Africa's total fertility rate was 5.4 between 2005 and 2010, double that of any other region. It is projected to decline to 3.2 by 2050, leading to a population increase of 1.2 billion people between 2012 and 2050. This growth will account for 50% of the total global population increase during that period, raising the region's population from 0.9 billion to 2.1 billion by 2050 and potentially to 3.9 billion by 2100.
• Sub-Saharan Africa faces severe food security challenges, with 27% of its population undernourished and the region housing 44% of the world's hungry. Cereal yields are approximately 1.5 metric tons per hectare per year, which is about half the global average, exacerbated by nutrient-depleted soil with low carbon content.
• Achieving replacement level fertility (2.1) in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 would result in a population of 1.76 billion—approximately 390 million fewer people than the UNDESA medium fertility scenario. This would reduce annual global food demand by roughly 600 trillion kcal, closing 9% of the projected 2050 global food gap and reducing the region's specific crop production gap by about one quarter.
• Reaching replacement fertility would provide economic and environmental benefits. Economically, it could trigger a "demographic dividend," which contributed up to one third of the growth of East Asian "Tigers" from 1965 to 1990. Environmentally, it would reduce the need for cropland expansion by one third, potentially sparing a forest and savannah area larger than Germany and providing a global value of US$400 billion to US$1 trillion in carbon emission reductions.
• Non-coercive strategies to reduce fertility include increasing educational opportunities for girls, improving access to reproductive health and family planning services, and reducing child and infant mortality. While national governments hold primary responsibility, bilateral and multilateral agencies and civil society organizations can support these efforts.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Achieving Replacement Level Fertility. https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Achieving Replacement Level Fertility. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Achieving Replacement Level Fertility |url=https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendachieving, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Achieving Replacement Level Fertility}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }