Achieving Replacement Level Fertility

The document highlights that Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where fertility rates remain significantly above replacement level, with a projected population increase to 2.1 billion by 2050. It argues that accelerating the decline to a replacement level of 2.1 children per woman would reduce the 2050 population by approximately 390 million people, thereby easing food demand, reducing the need for cropland expansion, and creating a 'demographic dividend' for economic growth. The paper advocates for non-coercive strategies, specifically improving girls' education, reproductive health access, and child mortality rates.

• Sub-Saharan Africa is an outlier in global fertility trends; its total fertility rate was 5.4 during 2005–10, which is double that of any other region, and it is only projected to drop to 3.2 by 2050.
• The region faces severe food security challenges, as it is the world's hungriest area, with 27 percent of its population undernourished and cereal yields of 1.5 metric tons per hectare per year, which is about half the global average.
• If Sub-Saharan Africa reached replacement level fertility (2.1 children per woman) by 2050, the population would be 1.76 billion, which is roughly 390 million fewer people than the medium fertility scenario projected by UNDESA.
• Achieving replacement level fertility would reduce the global food gap by about 9 percent (600 trillion kcal per year) and cut the required expansion of cropland in Sub-Saharan Africa by one third, potentially avoiding carbon emissions valued between US$400 billion and US$1 trillion.
• Effective, non-coercive methods to reduce fertility include increasing educational opportunities for girls, improving access to reproductive health and family planning services, and reducing infant and child mortality.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Achieving Replacement Level Fertility. https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Achieving Replacement Level Fertility. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Achieving Replacement Level Fertility |url=https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendachieving, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Achieving Replacement Level Fertility}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/achieving-replacement-level-fertility}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }