Assessing Physical Climate Risks for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Power Generation Project Investment Portfolio

This research paper presents a new method, co-developed by the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), to quantify physical climate risks for power generation portfolios. The method utilizes machine-learning techniques and climate science to estimate electricity generation losses across different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), specifically pilot-testing the approach on EBRD's thermal and hydropower assets.

• By 2030, EBRD's thermal and hydro power portfolio is projected to experience annual generation losses of 7.0 TWh (3.3%) under a moderate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) and 7.4 TWh (3.5%) under an extreme scenario (RCP 8.5), compared to a baseline loss of 0.76 TWh (0.4%).
• For thermal assets, the primary drivers of increased generation losses are intensified water stress and rising water temperatures, followed by air temperature and drought-induced water shortages.
• EBRD's hydropower portfolio is expected to see an overall reduction in annual average generation by 2030, with estimated losses of 222 GWh under RCP 4.5 and 148 GWh under RCP 8.5, primarily due to increased upstream water consumption and decreased precipitation.
• Coal-fired power plants are less climate-resilient than combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants; by 2030, coal plants are projected to have percentage generation losses of 1.7% (RCP 4.5) and 2.1% (RCP 8.5), which is more than double the losses of CCGT plants.
• Once-through cooling systems are the most vulnerable to climate-driven efficiency reductions compared to recirculating or dry cooling systems.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Assessing Physical Climate Risks for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Power Generation Project Investment Portfolio. https://www.wri.org/research/assessing-physical-climate-risks-european-bank-power-portfolio

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Assessing Physical Climate Risks for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Power Generation Project Investment Portfolio. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/assessing-physical-climate-risks-european-bank-power-portfolio.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Assessing Physical Climate Risks for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Power Generation Project Investment Portfolio |url=https://www.wri.org/research/assessing-physical-climate-risks-european-bank-power-portfolio |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendassessing, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Assessing Physical Climate Risks for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's Power Generation Project Investment Portfolio}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/assessing-physical-climate-risks-european-bank-power-portfolio}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }