Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator

This working paper uses the India Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), an open-source system dynamics model, to analyze two climate policy scenarios—the NDC-SDG Linkages (NDC-SDG) and Long-Term Decarbonization (LTD)—to identify cost-effective pathways for reducing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining economic growth in India.

• The paper compares two policy scenarios with different goals: the NDC-SDG scenario aligns sectoral levers with India's first Nationally Determined Contribution and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, while the LTD scenario targets high GHG abatement by 2050 using both proven and nascent technologies like hydrogen, battery storage, and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• The LTD scenario achieves higher emission reductions than the NDC-SDG scenario. Compared to business-as-usual (BAU) levels, the NDC-SDG scenario reduces GHG emissions by 24 percent by 2030 and 37 percent by 2050, whereas the LTD scenario reduces them by 30 percent by 2030 and 65 percent by 2050.
• A small number of policies drive the majority of emission reductions. In the NDC-SDG scenario, three policies—industrial carbon tax, industrial energy efficiency standards, and demand reduction for cement, steel, and wastewater—account for 67 percent of 2030 reductions (690 million metric tons of CO2e). In the LTD scenario, 47 percent of 2050 reductions (2,200 MtCO2e) come from industrial fuel switching to electricity and hydrogen, hydrogen production via electrolysis, and early retirement of coal power plants.
• Both scenarios provide co-benefits including cost savings, reduced water usage, and lower air pollution. Between 2020 and 2050, the NDC-SDG scenario could avoid 5.7 million premature deaths from air pollution, and the LTD scenario could avoid 9.4 million, relative to BAU projections.
• Deep decarbonization is compatible with economic growth, as both scenarios show positive impacts on output and employment relative to BAU. The implementation of a carbon tax is identified as an essential policy lever for achieving these positive economic impacts.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator. https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator |url=https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendpathways, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }