Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator

The paper evaluates two policy packages for India: the NDC-SDG scenario, aligning with 2030 goals, and the LTD scenario, targeting 2050. The LTD scenario offers higher emission reductions and health co-benefits but relies more on nascent technologies. Both scenarios demonstrate that deep decarbonization can coexist with GDP growth and employment increases, with a carbon tax identified as a critical policy lever.

• The Long-Term Decarbonization (LTD) scenario achieves greater greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions than the NDC-SDG scenario. Compared to business-as-usual (BAU) levels, the NDC-SDG scenario reduces emissions by 24 percent by 2030 and 37 percent by 2050, while the LTD scenario reduces them by 30 percent by 2030 and 65 percent by 2050.
• A small number of specific policies drive the majority of emission reductions. In the NDC-SDG scenario, 690 million metric tons (Mt) of CO2e (67 percent of 2030 reductions) result from an industrial carbon tax, industrial energy efficiency standards, and demand reduction for cement, steel, and wastewater. In the LTD scenario, 2,200 MtCO2e (47 percent of 2050 reductions) result from industrial fuel switching to electricity and hydrogen, hydrogen production via electrolysis, and early retirement of coal power plants.
• Both scenarios provide significant health and environmental co-benefits, including reduced water usage and fewer premature deaths from air pollution compared to BAU projections between 2020 and 2050: 5.7 million avoided deaths in the NDC-SDG scenario and 9.4 million in the LTD scenario.
• Deep decarbonization is compatible with economic growth, as both scenarios show positive impacts on output, employment, and net cost savings relative to BAU. The implementation of a carbon tax is described as an essential lever for achieving these positive economic outcomes.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator. https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator |url=https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutendpathways, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Pathways for Decarbonizing India’s Energy Future: Scenario Analysis Using the India Energy Policy Simulator}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/pathways-decarbonizing-indias-energy-future-scenario-analysis-using-india-energy-policy}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }