Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward

The paper examines the treatment of uncertainty in UNFCCC long-term climate strategies, identifying common sources of uncertainty and evaluating current handling methods. It advocates for a model-assisted quantitative approach to scenario analysis to better identify policy-relevant pathways and reduce the vulnerability of long-term strategies.

• The primary sources of uncertainty in long-term climate strategies relate to future climate impacts, the deployment and innovation of technology, the reliability of greenhouse gas emission data, and the availability of large-scale carbon removal solutions.
• Countries manage uncertainties by making assumptions, deferring analysis until more data is available, or using sensitivity and scenario analysis, with the latter being the most diverse method for framing uncertainties.
• The author proposes and demonstrates a model-assisted quantitative approach to scenario analysis, arguing that addressing material uncertainties in this way can reduce the vulnerability of long-term strategies.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward. https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward |url=https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutenduncertainty, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }