Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward

This working paper evaluates how long-term low-emission development strategies submitted to the UNFCCC manage uncertainty and utilize scenario analysis, proposing a model-assisted quantitative approach to enhance these practices.

• The paper identifies the most frequent sources of uncertainty in long-term climate strategies as the reliability of current greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data, the availability of large-scale carbon removal solutions, technological innovation and deployment, and future climate impacts.
• Strategies for managing uncertainties include making assumptions about uncertainty factors, deferring full analysis until further research and data collection are completed, and performing scenario or sensitivity analysis. Among these, scenario analysis exhibits the greatest diversity in how uncertainties are framed.
• The author suggests that a model-assisted quantitative approach can strengthen scenario analysis and help identify and address material uncertainties, thereby reducing the vulnerability of long-term strategies.

APA

World Resources Institute (n.d.). Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward. https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward

Chicago

World Resources Institute. Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward. n.d. https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Resources Institute |title=Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward |url=https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldresourcesinstitutenduncertainty, author = {{World Resources Institute}}, title = {{Uncertainty, Scenario Analysis, and Long-Term Strategies: State of Play and a Way Forward}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, url = {https://www.wri.org/research/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-and-long-term-strategies-state-play-and-way-forward}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }