Microsoft Word - JCI and WMBC 2025 - Japan NDC note_English.docx

The document analyzes Japan's second NDC, submitted in February 2025, which targets greenhouse gas emission reductions of 60% by 2035 and 73% by 2040 relative to 2013 levels. The authors argue these targets are insufficient for a developed nation and fall below the global average required for the 1.5°C goal. The briefing emphasizes that Japan is currently off track for its 2030 goals and risks economic disadvantage by maintaining a reliance on fossil fuels. It calls for a rapid phase-out of coal by 2035, a significant increase in renewable energy capacity—potentially reaching 65-80% of electricity supply by 2035—and the implementation of a robust carbon pricing system via the GX-ETS with a binding emissions cap. The report also highlights the role of electrification, particularly through heat pumps and electric vehicles, and the strong support for more ambitious action from the Japanese business community.

• Japan's second NDC, submitted in February 2025, sets greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of 60% for 2035 and 73% for 2040 compared to 2013 levels, but these are considered insufficient given Japan's status as a developed country and are less ambitious than the global average needed for the 1.5°C goal.
• Japan is currently off track to meet its 2030 emissions target, with emissions having fallen by 23% between 2013 and 2022, and projected reductions of 42% by 2030 under current planned measures.
• The 7th Strategic Energy Plan lacks domestic targets for renewable energy supply and maintains a high reliance on thermal power, which is projected to supply 30-40% of the energy mix in 2040 based on uncertain technologies like hydrogen, ammonia, and CCS.
• There is significant potential for Japan to increase its renewable energy share to 65-80% of electricity supply by 2035, with solar power alone capable of meeting 80% of electricity demand using only 12-19% of estimated installation potential.
• The GX Emissions Trading Scheme (GX-ETS), scheduled for 2026, currently lacks an emissions cap and a carbon price high enough to drive real reductions; the authors suggest a price of roughly USD 140 per tCO2e by 2030 to align with IEA estimates for developed countries.
• Japanese business leaders show overwhelming support for a transition to a renewables-based electricity system, with 96% supporting the shift and 64% wanting it to occur within the next decade.

APA

We Mean Business Coalition (n.d.). Microsoft Word - JCI and WMBC 2025 - Japan NDC note_English.docx. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/JCI-and-WMBC-2025-Japan-NDC-note_English.pdf

Chicago

We Mean Business Coalition. Microsoft Word - JCI and WMBC 2025 - Japan NDC note_English.docx. n.d. https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/JCI-and-WMBC-2025-Japan-NDC-note_English.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=We Mean Business Coalition |title=Microsoft Word - JCI and WMBC 2025 - Japan NDC note_English.docx |url=https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/JCI-and-WMBC-2025-Japan-NDC-note_English.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wemeanbusinesscoalitionndmicrosoft, author = {{We Mean Business Coalition}}, title = {{Microsoft Word - JCI and WMBC 2025 - Japan NDC note\_English.docx}}, institution = {We Mean Business Coalition}, url = {https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/JCI-and-WMBC-2025-Japan-NDC-note_English.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }