The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects: Unlocking Opportunities for Sahelian Communities

The report argues that the Great Green Wall (GGW) initiative is falling behind its 2030 targets due to insufficient public funding and proposes the voluntary carbon market (VCM) as a viable alternative for private investment. Analysis by Tree Aid identifies an untapped potential of 1.81 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent storage across 24.31 million hectares in GGW countries, representing a potential asset value of $28 billion at 2023 prices. While the region faces risks including political instability, disputed land tenure, and harsh environmental conditions, the report suggests these can be mitigated through community-led approaches, the use of native species, and strengthened regulatory frameworks. It recommends public-private partnerships to de-risk investment and a focus on high-integrity, nature-based removal credits to ensure benefits reach local communities.

• The Great Green Wall (GGW) initiative, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of land and create 10 million green jobs by 2030, is currently falling behind its targets, with only approximately 18% of restoration activities completed by the end of 2020.
• Tree Aid's analysis estimates that 24.31 million hectares in the desert, arid, and tropical savannah zones of GGW countries are available for VCM projects, offering a potential for 1.81 billion additional tonnes of CO2-equivalent storage.
• Based on 2023 market prices of $15.74 for afforestation, reforestation, and revegetation (ARR) credits, the untapped carbon potential in the GGW region is valued at approximately $28 billion.
• Nigeria and Ethiopia are identified as highly attractive for VCM investment, ranking 7th and 13th globally, respectively.
• Investment in the Sahel is hindered by several risks, including political instability, disputed land tenure, and the risk of non-viable projects due to high tree mortality and slow growth caused by harsh environmental conditions.
• To mitigate biological risks and improve survival rates, the report advocates for the use of drought-resistant native species; Tree Aid reports a 70% survival rate for 32 million trees grown over 37 years using community engagement and low-tech management.
• High-integrity VCM projects must employ 'free, prior and informed consent' (FPIC) and community-centred benefit-sharing mechanisms to avoid the historical exclusion of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
• An illustrative project for a semi-arid GGW region involving 14,000 hectares of reforestation and 1,500 hectares of agroforestry suggests a potential 19.1% internal rate of return (IRR) for investors over 40 years, with 45% of credits allocated to the community.
• The report recommends that donor governments and multilateral development banks use blended finance to co-invest in restoration work, which would de-risk private sector investment by funding feasibility assessments and initial registration.

APA

World Economic Forum (2024). The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects: Unlocking Opportunities for Sahelian Communities. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Untapped_Potential_of_Great_Green_Wall_Voluntary_Carbon_Market_Projects_2024.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects: Unlocking Opportunities for Sahelian Communities. 2024. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Untapped_Potential_of_Great_Green_Wall_Voluntary_Carbon_Market_Projects_2024.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects: Unlocking Opportunities for Sahelian Communities |date=December 2024 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Untapped_Potential_of_Great_Green_Wall_Voluntary_Carbon_Market_Projects_2024.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2024untapped, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects: Unlocking Opportunities for Sahelian Communities}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2024}, month = dec, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Untapped_Potential_of_Great_Green_Wall_Voluntary_Carbon_Market_Projects_2024.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }