The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World

The report examines the challenges posed by global population ageing on pension and healthcare systems, focusing on financial sustainability, equitable access, and quality of care. It develops three global scenarios for 2030: 'The Winners and the Rest' (high growth, high inequality), 'We Are in This Together' (moderate growth, collective accountability), and 'You Are on Your Own' (economic recession, individual responsibility). The document provides deep-dive analyses of Italy and China, highlighting specific demographic pressures, such as Italy's high old-age dependency ratio and China's rapid ageing resulting from family planning policies. It concludes by suggesting strategic options for stakeholders, including raising retirement ages, promoting preventive healthcare, and developing new financial instruments like longevity bonds.

• The report identifies three distinct global scenarios for 2030 based on economic performance and societal attitudes toward responsibility: 'The Winners and the Rest' (high growth, individual responsibility), 'We Are in This Together' (moderate growth, collective accountability), and 'You Are on Your Own' (low growth, forced individual responsibility).
• China faces an exceptional demographic shift, with its elderly population expected to double in just 27 years, compared to 115 years in France and 69 years in the United States.
• China's healthcare system is fragmented and underfunded, with an estimated 36.5% of the population covered by healthcare programmes and a high reliance on private spending, which accounts for approximately half of all healthcare expenditure.
• Italy has one of the world's lowest fertility rates (1.4 in 2007) and highest life expectancies, leading to the EU's highest percentage of population aged 65 and over.
• Italy's healthcare system faces significant regional inequalities, with outcomes perceived to be worse in the south, exacerbated by decentralization that devolves management to regional authorities.
• The report suggests several strategic options to improve financial sustainability, including raising the official retirement age, investing in longevity bonds, and promoting preventive healthcare to reduce long-term costs.

APA

Sikken, B. J., Davis, N., Hayashi, C., & Olkkonen, H. (2008). The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World. World Economic Forum. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_PensionsAndHealth2030_Report_2010.pdf

Chicago

Sikken, Bernd Jan, Nicholas Davis, Chiemi Hayashi, and Heli Olkkonen. The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World. World Economic Forum, 2008. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_PensionsAndHealth2030_Report_2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sikken |first1=Bernd Jan |last2=Davis |first2=Nicholas |last3=Hayashi |first3=Chiemi |last4=Olkkonen |first4=Heli |title=The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World |publisher=World Economic Forum |date=2008 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_PensionsAndHealth2030_Report_2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sikken2008future, author = {Sikken, Bernd Jan and Davis, Nicholas and Hayashi, Chiemi and Olkkonen, Heli}, title = {{The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2008}, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenario_PensionsAndHealth2030_Report_2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }