Resource scarcity

The report argues that while global stocks of natural resources are generally sufficient to meet demands through 2035, the flow of these resources is increasingly threatened by 'above ground' factors such as geopolitics, extreme weather, and social inequality. It identifies four fragmented paradigms—material exhaustion, rising costs, long-term abundance, and social injustice—and proposes a fifth, integrated paradigm. Key findings highlight that economic growth, rather than population growth, is the primary driver of future demand, and that resource interconnections (the food-water-energy nexus) can transmit local crises into global risks.

• Stakeholders typically view resource availability through one of four fragmented paradigms: threats of material exhaustion, concern about rising costs, long-term abundance, or social injustice. Relying on a single paradigm creates risks because each is only valid at specific scales or for specific resources.
• Global stocks of most natural resources are sufficient to meet society's demands through 2035, provided there is increased efficiency and diversification. However, the actual flow of these resources is threatened by 'above ground' risks, including geopolitical threats, infrastructure failures, and regulatory costs.
• Economic growth and development are far more significant drivers of resource demand than population growth for the period leading to 2035. For example, China is projected to contribute only 4% of world population growth but nearly 40% of additional energy demand over 20 years.
• Resource availability is influenced by a complex interplay of technology, preferences, policies, and prices, which are frequently underestimated in demand and supply forecasts.
• Growing interconnections between resources—spanning biophysical, market, political, and social domains—mean that local resource shocks can easily transmit into global risks and price volatility.
• Distributional inequalities in resource access occur both between nations and within them, creating systemic social and geopolitical tensions. Approximately 780 million people lack access to clean water, and 1.3 billion lack home electricity.
• Environmental degradation and climate change create risks to resource availability, while resource extraction itself drives environmental risk. Irreversible climate change could cost up to 20% of global GDP per year through 2050.
• The report presents three scenarios: 'Clash of Interests' (geopolitical fears causing scarcity), 'Alarming Abundance' (plentiful energy causing water scarcity and environmental damage), and 'Challenge of Transition' (the high costs and social friction of shifting to a low-carbon economy).

APA

World Economic Forum (2014). Resource scarcity. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FutureAvailabilityNaturalResources_Report_2014.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Resource scarcity. 2014. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FutureAvailabilityNaturalResources_Report_2014.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Resource scarcity |date=November 2014 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FutureAvailabilityNaturalResources_Report_2014.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2014resource, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Resource scarcity}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2014}, month = nov, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FutureAvailabilityNaturalResources_Report_2014.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }