Technology and Innovation in Financial Services: Scenarios to 2020

The report presents three divergent future scenarios for the financial services industry up to 2020: 'Global Ivy League', where a few massive global banks dominate through scale and trust; 'Next Frontier', characterized by a modular ecosystem of specialized new entrants and high digital trust; and 'Innovation Islands', where geopolitical tensions stall globalization, leading to 'leapfrogging' innovation in emerging markets like India and China while other regions stagnate.

• The 'Global Ivy League' scenario envisions a highly concentrated sector where a small number of global powerhouses dominate. In this future, incumbent banks use their scale and trusted brands to overcome the agility of new players, eventually evolving into 'global processing factories with customized front-ends'.
• The 'Next Frontier' scenario describes a modular ecosystem of highly specialized providers driven by fundamental innovation from new entrants, such as telecommunications companies, retailers, and peer-to-peer providers. This scenario assumes a 'laissez-faire' regulatory approach and high consumer trust in digital security.
• The 'Innovation Islands' scenario posits that geopolitical tensions and instability stall globalization, causing regional markets to diverge. This leads to 'leapfrogging' in large emerging economies like China and India, where government investment in infrastructure and progressive regulation foster local innovation and expand access for the poor.
• Within the 'Innovation Islands' scenario, some regions experience 'Business as usual', where innovation in developed economies like the US or Europe neither accelerates nor decelerates, while others fall 'Back to the past', where governments increase control and efficiency regresses.
• Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) is identified as a critical technology for both incumbents and new entrants to improve flexibility, reduce costs, and move away from vertically organized 'silo' structures.
• The report highlights the potential of 'Intelligent Agents' and the 'Semantic Web' to revolutionize the industry by allowing software to interpret meaning from data and autonomously manage financial tasks for individuals.
• Financial inclusion for the 'un-banked' is projected to improve most significantly in the 'Next Frontier' and 'Innovation Islands' scenarios, whereas the 'Global Ivy League' scenario sees only modest reductions in the un-banked population as the focus remains on profitable urban and middle-class segments.

APA

World Economic Forum (2007). Technology and Innovation in Financial Services: Scenarios to 2020. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FS_Scenario_ITandInovation2020_2010.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Technology and Innovation in Financial Services: Scenarios to 2020. 2007. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FS_Scenario_ITandInovation2020_2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Technology and Innovation in Financial Services: Scenarios to 2020 |date=January 2007 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FS_Scenario_ITandInovation2020_2010.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2007technology, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Technology and Innovation in Financial Services: Scenarios to 2020}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2007}, month = jan, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FS_Scenario_ITandInovation2020_2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }