White Paper Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and their Implications

The World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group developed a framework to explore the future of work by 2030, using three volatile variables: the rate of technological change, the evolution of learning, and the magnitude of talent mobility. By combining two possible outcomes for each variable (steady vs. accelerated technology; slow vs. fast learning; low vs. high mobility), the report identifies eight distinct scenarios ranging from 'Workforce Autarkies' to 'Agile Adapters'. These scenarios illustrate potential risks, such as the 'hollowing out' of the labour market in the 'Robot Replacement' and 'Polarized World' scenarios, and opportunities, such as the 'economic dynamism' seen in the 'Agile Adapters' scenario. The document concludes with a set of recommended 'no regret' and 'big bet' actions, including workforce reskilling, education system reform, and the implementation of agile safety nets.

• The report identifies three core variables that determine the future of work: the rate of technological change and its impact on business models, the evolution of learning among the workforce, and the magnitude of talent mobility across geographies.
• In scenarios where technological change is accelerated but learning evolution is slow, such as 'Robot Replacement' and 'Polarized World', the labour market may experience a 'hollowing out' effect, leading to deep inequalities and social unrest.
• The 'Agile Adapters' scenario represents a positive outcome where accelerated technology, fast learning evolution, and high talent mobility create a global workforce that is 'highly agile, productive and globalized'.
• Scenarios with low talent mobility, such as 'Workforce Autarkies' and 'Productive Locals', can lead to talent shortages and reduced economic dynamism as countries resist migration to protect local jobs or retain high-skilled talent.
• To prepare for these uncertainties, the document suggests 'no regret' actions including the reform of basic education to include 'human' skills like creativity and critical thinking, and the creation of agile, portable safety nets.
• The report highlights the potential for 'soft infrastructure' sectors, such as the care economy, education, and healthcare, to provide growth opportunities because they leverage human skills that have low susceptibility to automation.

APA

World Economic Forum (2018). White Paper Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and their Implications. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Eight_Futures.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. White Paper Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and their Implications. 2018. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Eight_Futures.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=White Paper Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and their Implications |date=January 2018 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Eight_Futures.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2018white, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{White Paper Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and their Implications}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2018}, month = jan, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Eight_Futures.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }