Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030

The report identifies two primary drivers of the future global economy: geoeconomics and technology. It presents four scenarios for 2030: 'Digitalized Order' (stable geopolitics, fast tech adoption), 'Cautious Stability' (stable geopolitics, slow tech adoption), 'Tech-based Survival' (volatile geopolitics, fast tech adoption), and 'Geotech Spheres' (volatile geopolitics, slow tech adoption). The document outlines the macroeconomic, trade, labour, and energy implications of each, while providing a set of 'no-regret' strategic moves for businesses to maintain resilience regardless of the outcome.

• A July–August 2025 survey of chief strategy officers identified the commercialization of AI and emerging technologies (72%) and geoeconomic fragmentation (52%) as the most significant global trends impacting business strategies over the next five years.
• In the 'Digitalized Order' scenario, a 'grand bargain' between the US and China stabilizes the global order, leading to annual global GDP growth exceeding 4% by 2030 and annual digital economy FDI surpassing $122 billion.
• The 'Cautious Stability' scenario is characterized by stagnant GDP growth of 2–3% and a burst AI bubble caused by limited commercial payoffs, with global R&D spending stagnating below $3 trillion annually.
• The 'Tech-based Survival' scenario features high geopolitical volatility and rapid technology adoption within blocs, where businesses use digitalization to offset disruption costs and the share of business tasks performed by technology rises above 22%.
• The 'Geotech Spheres' scenario describes a highly fragmented world with double-digit inflation, global public debt exceeding $102 trillion, and Brent crude oil price spikes above $100 per barrel due to resource nationalism.
• The report recommends several 'no-regret' moves for businesses to prepare for any scenario, including developing a dedicated geopolitical intelligence function, investing in supply chain modularity, and aligning technology investments with human capital development.

APA

World Economic Forum (2025). Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_the_New_Economy_Geoeconomics_and_Technology_in_2030_2025.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030. 2025. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_the_New_Economy_Geoeconomics_and_Technology_in_2030_2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030 |date=December 2025 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_the_New_Economy_Geoeconomics_and_Technology_in_2030_2025.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2025four, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Four Futures for the New Economy: Geoeconomics and Technology in 2030}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_the_New_Economy_Geoeconomics_and_Technology_in_2030_2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }