Four Futures for Economic Globalization: Scenarios and Their Implications

The report outlines four potential futures for economic globalization by 2027: 'Globalization 5.0: Reconnection' (physical and virtual integration), 'Analogue Networks: Virtual Nationalism' (physical integration, virtual fragmentation), 'Digital Dominance: Agile Platforms' (virtual integration, physical fragmentation), and 'Autarkic World: Systemic Fragmentation' (physical and virtual fragmentation). It argues that the future will likely be a complex combination of these scenarios and suggests that resilience is best achieved through integration, diversification, and investment in human capital.

• In the 'Globalization 5.0: Reconnection' scenario, global cooperation and the diversification of supply chains for commodities like food and energy reduce price shocks. This future is characterized by inclusive growth, technological leapfrogging in areas such as AI and fintech, and a more globalized labour market with converged tax and labour regulations.
• The 'Analogue Networks: Virtual Nationalism' scenario involves physical trade integration but virtual fragmentation, leading to 'splinternets' and state-sponsored monopolies. This fragmentation stagnates collaborative innovation, reduces the global output of tech-driven industries like electric vehicles and medicine, and risks slowing the transition to renewable energy.
• Under 'Digital Dominance: Agile Platforms', virtual integration persists while physical supply chains fragment among strategic allies (such as the US-EU or China-Russia). This creates risks of prolonged supply shortages and a cost-of-living crisis, though digital 'anything as a service' models may partially offset economic losses.
• The 'Autarkic World: Systemic Fragmentation' scenario describes a state of both physical and virtual fragmentation, leading to the nationalization of industries, reduced global industrial output, and a deterioration in climate change cooperation. This scenario increases the risk of debt defaults for heavily indebted governments and corporations.
• The report identifies 'no-regret moves' for decision-makers regardless of the scenario, emphasizing that economic resilience is best achieved through integration, sharing, and diversification, and that global cooperation is essential for managing the climate crisis.

APA

World Economic Forum (2022). Four Futures for Economic Globalization: Scenarios and Their Implications. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_Economic_Globalization_2022.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Four Futures for Economic Globalization: Scenarios and Their Implications. 2022. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_Economic_Globalization_2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Four Futures for Economic Globalization: Scenarios and Their Implications |date=May 2022 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_Economic_Globalization_2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2022four, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Four Futures for Economic Globalization: Scenarios and Their Implications}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Futures_for_Economic_Globalization_2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }